In this paper, we review the literature on a number of the potential explanations for the rise in health care expenditures in the United States: the aging population, the costs of dying, technology, physician incomes, administrative costs, prescription drugs, managed care, and the underfunding of public health. Our goal is not to pass definitive judgment on the force(s) driving health care costs, but rather to make the reader a more educated consumer of these widely cited data. We place special emphasis on how health expenditures are measured and the inherent weaknesses in the methodology. We find that frequently it is difficult to accurately estimate how individual forces influence total health care expenditures. Moreover, we conclude that interpreting the causes of the rise in expenditures goes beyond simple observations of trends and depends on how we value various segments and aspects of health and health care.
INTRODUCTIONDespite years of concern and attempts at cost control, the nation's health care expenditures have grown inexorably. We hear of health care costs "spiraling out of control," the health care "crisis," and how government, employers, and the uninsured struggle to find ways to pay the bills. Heated discussions on the underlying reasons for the rise in health expenditures have been a fixture of news and public policy debates for over 40 years. The most recent explanation is that pharmaceuticals are driving the rise in health care expenditures and this is secondary to direct-to-consumer advertising and excessive profit making by the pharmaceutical industry. Over the years, other factors have been blamed, including excessive administrative costs, the aging population, the use of high-technology care, and excessively high physician incomes. There is also much debate about whether managed care controlled health care expenditures and, if so, was it a lasting effect? These discussions often focus on a single factor and there is little literature that synthesizes the debate on these factors.
386MEHROTRA DUDLEY LUFTIn this paper we attempt to do just that: We review the literature on the major factors thought to influence the nation's health care expenditures. Our goal is not to pass definitive judgment on the force(s) driving health care costs (we think it an impossible task), but rather to allow the reader to be a more educated consumer of these widely cited data, separating rhetoric from fact. To better understand the controversies at hand, we place special emphasis on how health expenditures are measured and the weaknesses (and sometimes biases) inherent in the methodologies used.The paper begins with background on what underlies the concern with increasing health care expenditures. We then briefly discuss how total expenditures are measured and give an overview of spending. The majority of the paper is then devoted to eight commonly cited factors thought to influence the nation's health care expenditures. We conclude with our thoughts on how to interpret the debate.