The demography of tree species response to climate: seedling recruitment and survival

Canham, Charles D.; Murphy, Lora

doi:10.1002/ecs2.1424

Cited by 62 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Our study area was significantly smaller than that described by Zhu et al (2014), and the geographic and climatic gradients were of finer scale. In addition, our findings are consistent with models that show lower seedling survival of northern species under warmer climates or increasing water deficit (Canham & Murphy, 2016). Small seedling abundance was positively associated with July maximum temperature, but was not significantly correlated with longitude, indicating that although seedlings can establish anywhere along the gradient, they show disproportionately higher survival and recruitment into the next life stage (≥15 cm in height) at the western end of the study area.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Warming drives a front of white spruce establishment near western treeline, Alaska

Miller

Wilson

Sherriff

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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Regional warming has led to increased productivity near the boreal forest margin in Alaska. To date, the effects of warming on seedling recruitment have received little attention, in spite of forecasted forest expansion. Here, we used stand structure and environmental data from 95 white spruce (Picea glauca) plots sampled across a longitudinal gradient in southwest Alaska to explore factors influencing spruce establishment and recruitment near western treeline. We used total counts of live seedlings, saplings, and trees, representing five life stages, to evaluate whether geospatial, climate, and measured plot covariates predicted abundance, using current abundance distributions as a surrogate for climate conditions in the past. We used generalized linear models to test the null hypothesis that conditions favorable for recruitment were similar along the environmental gradient represented by longitude, by exploring relationships between per-plot counts of each life stage and the covariates hypothesized to affect abundance. We also examined the relationship between growing degree days (GDD) and seedling establishment over a period of three decades using tree-ring chronologies obtained from cores taken at a subset of our sites (n = 30). Our results indicated that seedling, sapling, and tree abundance were positively correlated with temperature across the study area. The response to longitude was mixed, with earlier life stages (seedlings, saplings) most abundant at the western end of the gradient, and later life stages (trees) most abundant to the east. The differential relationship between longitude and life-stage abundance suggests a moving front of white spruce establishment through time, driven by changes in environmental conditions near the species' western range limit. Likewise, we found a positive relationship between periods of seedling establishment and GDD, suggesting that longer summers and/or greater heat accumulation might enhance establishment, consistent with the positive relationship we found between life-stage abundance and temperature.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Warming drives a front of white spruce establishment near western treeline, Alaska

Miller

Wilson

Sherriff

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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“…The pseudo-R 2 was calculated by fitting a line through the predicted proportion of plots as compared to the observed proportion of plots across 50 evenly spaced bins spanning from zero to the maximum predicted probability (sensu Canham and Murphy 2016). Also called oak-gum-cypress.…”

Section: Bottomland Forestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social and biophysical variation in regional timber harvest regimes

Thompson

Canham

Morreale

et al. 2017

Ecological Applications

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In terms of adult tree mortality, harvesting is the most prevalent disturbance in northeastern United States forests. Previous studies have demonstrated that stand structure and tree species composition are important predictors of harvest. We extend this work to investigate how social factors further influence harvest regimes. By coupling the Forest Inventory and Analysis database to U.S. Census and National Woodland Owner Survey (NWOS) data, we quantify social and biophysical variation in the frequency and intensity of harvesting throughout a 20-state region in the northeastern United States. Among social factors, ownership class is most predictive of harvest frequency and intensity. The annual probability of a harvest event within privately owned forest (3%/yr) is twice as high as within publicly owned forests (1.5%/yr). Among private owner classes, the annual harvest probability on corporate-owned forests (3.6%/yr) is 25% higher than on private woodlands (2.9%/yr). Among public owner classes, the annual probability of harvest is highest on municipally owned forests (2.4%/ yr), followed by state-owned forests (1.6%/yr), and is lowest on federal forests (1%/yr). In contrast, corporate, state, and municipal forests all have similar distributions of harvest intensity; the median percentage of basal area removed during harvest events is approximately 40% in these three owner groups. Federal forests are similar to private woodlands with median harvest intensities of 23% and 20%, respectively. Social context variables, including local home prices, population density and the distance to a road, help explain the intensity, but not the frequency, of harvesting. Private woodlands constitute the majority of forest area; however, demographic data about their owners (e.g., their age, educational attainment, length of land tenure, retired status) show little relationship to aggregate harvest behavior. Instead, significant predictors for harvesting on private woodlands include live-tree basal area, forest type, and distance from roads. Just as with natural disturbance regimes, harvest regimes are predictable in terms of their frequency, intensity, and dispersion; and like their natural counterparts, these variables are determined by several important dimensions of environmental context. But in contrast to natural disturbance regimes, the important dimensions of context for harvesting include a combination of social and biophysical variables.

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“…Climate change models predict that increased temperatures and higher drought deficits will influence regeneration dynamics in the eastern U.S. [79][80][81]. Some models suggest that now dominant northern hardwood and conifer species may decline due to water deficits [82].…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Variability and Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some models suggest that now dominant northern hardwood and conifer species may decline due to water deficits [82]. However, sugar maple, red maple, yellow birch, and American beech, surprisingly, showed enhanced seedling survival with increasing water deficit between 25 mm and 625 mm across their entire range [81]. These may be transient effects; if conditions become too dry or too wet seedling mortality may increase [83,84].…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Variability and Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regeneration Responses to Management for Old-Growth Characteristics in Northern Hardwood-Conifer Forests

Gottesman¹

2017

Forests

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Successful tree regeneration is essential for sustainable forest management, yet it can be limited by the interaction of harvesting effects and multiple ecological drivers. In northern hardwood forests, for example, there is uncertainty whether low-intensity selection harvesting techniques will result in adequate and desirable regeneration. Our research is part of a long-term study that tests the hypothesis that a silvicultural approach called "structural complexity enhancement" (SCE) can accelerate the development of late-successional forest structure and functions. Our objective is to understand the regeneration dynamics following three uneven-aged forestry treatments with high levels of retention: single-tree selection, group selection, and SCE. Regeneration density and diversity can be limited by differing treatment effects on or interactions among light availability, competitive environment, substrate, and herbivory. To explore these relationships, manipulations and controls were replicated across 2 ha treatment units at two Vermont sites. Forest inventory data were collected pre-harvest and periodically over 13 years post-harvest. We used mixed effects models with repeated measures to evaluate the effect of treatment on seedling and sapling density and diversity (Shannon-Weiner H'). The treatments were all successful in recruiting a sapling class with significantly greater sapling densities compared to the controls. However, undesirable and prolific beech (Fagus americana) sprouting dominates some patches in the understory of all the treatments, creating a high degree of spatial variability in the competitive environment for regeneration. Multivariate analyses suggest that while treatment had a dominant effect, other factors were influential in driving regeneration responses. These results indicate variants of uneven-aged systems that retain or enhance elements of stand structural complexity-including old-growth characteristics-can generally foster abundant regeneration of important late successional tree species depending on site conditions, but they may require beech control where beech sprouting inhibits desired regeneration.

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The demography of tree species response to climate: seedling recruitment and survival

Cited by 62 publications

References 50 publications

Warming drives a front of white spruce establishment near western treeline, Alaska

Warming drives a front of white spruce establishment near western treeline, Alaska

Social and biophysical variation in regional timber harvest regimes

Regeneration Responses to Management for Old-Growth Characteristics in Northern Hardwood-Conifer Forests

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