The Demand for Post-Compulsory Education in Four European Countries

Abstract

This study seeks to explain changes in the proportion of 16 year olds, 17 year olds and 18 year olds who decide to participate in post-compulsory education. Four countries are considered; Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and England, over as much of the period from 1960 to the present day as data will allow. An initial inspection of the data reveals non-stationarity in virtually all of the series under consideration, so that a cointegration framework is appropriate. The analysis therefore proceeds using the two-stage procedure proposed by Engle and Granger. The results suggest that the key variable that explains the growth in post-compulsory education participation is the increase in prior academic attainment before the end of compulsory schooling. This is the case particularly for females, males being also influenced by the returns available to offering a higher level of education, and the level of real income available to 'spend' on education. The level of youth unemployment seems to play only a small part in the decision as to whether to remain in education.

The Return on Post–Compulsory School Mathematics Study

“…There are a number of reasons for this increase in participation at A level. Research has shown that the demand for post-compulsory education is significantly affected by prior attainment at school (Pissarides 1982;McIntosh 1998). Furthermore, from the labour market perspective the popularity of A levels is unsurprising, since there is an 8%± 20% return on these qualifications, compared with those without any qualifications at all (Dearden et al 1998).…”

The Impact of Distance to Nearest Education Institution on the Post-compulsory Education Participation Decision

“…In terms of prior attainment, success in public examinations at the completion of compulsory schooling has been shown many times to be strongly and positively related to the likelihood of continuing into post-compulsory education. McIntosh (2001) and McVicar and Rice (2001) offer time series evidence on the positive relationship between the rate of success in GCSE examinations and the post-compulsory participation rate. Cross-sectional evidence at the individual level for the same relationship is provided, inter alia, by Ashford et al (1993), Gray et al (1993), Lenton (2005), Payne (1998) and Rice (1999).…”

Increasing the Supply of Skills

“…Thus, a brief overview of the results is presented here. Further details can be found in McIntosh (2001). Taking the results as a whole, they suggest that the most important determinant of post-compulsory education choices is prior academic performance during compulsory schooling.…”

“…In particular, the first question, on the proportions of low-skilled, will be answered using evidence from the Newskills project undertaken by Murray and Steedman (1999). A review of available literature will be used to describe how changes in the supply of skills can affect labour market outcomes, before we return again to Newskills projects that describe factors influencing the decision to participate in post-compulsory formal education (McIntosh, 2001) and factors that make the receipt of vocational training more likely (McIntosh, 1999;Leuven & Oosterbeek, 1997;. A final section offers some conclusions.…”