The Delphi Technique

Linstone, Harold A.

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-70634-9_22

Cited by 90 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The final step was validation of the model by the Delphi method, where half of our respondents were asked to consider the model and rank it again. The Delphi Methods use of a panel of experts proposes that the group will converge toward the "best" response through this consensus process (Linstone and Turoff, 1975). The midpoint of responses is statistically categorized by the median score.…”

Section: Research Design and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Success in Israeli high-tech start-ups; Critical factors and process

2006

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This paper develops a model of the factors deemed critical for success in high-tech new ventures in Israel. Israel presents an interesting forum, geographically distant from main markets but richly endowed with human capital, new high-tech ventures are seen as an essential element of the economy. Yet, despite its importance, high-tech is characterised by risk and challenge. Consequently a model which draws on the experience of success and failures should be valuable. Our multi stage methodology enrolled the wisdom and experience of founders, managers and financiers of high-tech businesses to identify and categorise the importance of the factors and the role played by these factors. We found that success factors could be grouped as critical or as important. The first group categorised the idea, strategy, the core team's commitment, expertise and marketing as critical. Important factors were deemed to be management, customer relationships and research and development. The least important factors proved to be those external to the firm, the economy, politics and the general business environment. Overall the study emphasised that the attitudes and abilities of the core team were paramount. Although the model is based on the Israeli experience, many of the aspects are global. Consequently the study may have broad applicability.

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Section: Research Design and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Success in Israeli high-tech start-ups; Critical factors and process

2006

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“…39 Before 1991, this recreational fishery was completely open access, managed only through a spawning season closure, a personal daily bag limit, and gear restrictions. Effort by the recreational fishery was unknown, and the only estimate of landings by this fishing sector was accomplished using a Delphi exercise (Linstone & Turroff 1975) that estimated them to be equal to c. 10% of commercial landings (Zuboy 1980). In 1991, Florida instituted a recreational spiny lobster license, purchased as an additional endorsement to the state's saltwater fishing license (required by all fishers more than 16 years old except Florida residents more than 65 years old).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term trends in the recreational lobster fishery of Florida, United States: Landings, effort, and implications for management

Sharp

Bertelsen

Leeworthy

2005

New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research

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In Florida, United States, the Caribbean spiny lobster, Panulirus argus, supports an important commercial fishery and also perhaps the most intensive recreational fishery of any lobster species, with sales of recreational lobster fishing permits exceeding 100 000 annually. For the past decade, we have used mail surveys of recreational lobster license holders to estimate spatially explicit landings and fishing effort when recreational fishers are most active-during the state's "Special Two-Day Sport Season", which takes place just before the opening of the commercial season, and during the first month of the regular recreational season, which coincides with the commercial season. without trend. Fishing effort during the regular season over the same period has ranged from 261 000 to 514 000 person-days, and landings have ranged from 434 to 825 t. Fishing effort has shown a marginally statistically significant decreasing trend, the result of a progressive decrease in effort since 1999. The largest proportion of both fishing effort and landings was concentrated along the south-east coast. Despite the recent decrease in landings, the proportion of total landings made by the recreational fishery has increased. From 1993 through 1998, the fishery was responsible for c. 30% of commercial landings; by 2001, that percentage increased to nearly 40%. Such a shift in landings away from the commercial trap fishery toward the recreational fishery was recognised as a potential but unintended effect of the ongoing management plan of restricting effort in the commercial trap fishery. Our 2001 surveys revealed that recreational lobster fishers spent more on a person-day basis than the general visitor to the Florida Keys did, but less than those visitors using the region's coral reefs. Consequently, managers must establish management strategies that allow the coexistence of this resource's user groups and also incorporate the social and environmental concerns of nonuser groups.

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“…The forecasting system is an improved version of the Delphi method [7]. But unlike most Delphi surveys, TechCast uses an empirical foundation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Business Strategy for the Technology Revolution: Competing at the Edge of Creative Destruction

Halal

2012

J Knowl Econ

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This article presents an overview of the Technology Revolution and how corporations compete in an era of economic transformation. We draw on a state-ofthe-art forecasting system to outline strategic technological advances that are likely to enter the mainstream and their expected impacts. To better understand how to navigate this wave of change, we examine three corporate exemplars that have thrived by surfing the leading edge of the technology tsunami-Netflix, Apple, and Toyota. Then we integrate what can be learned from these cases into guidelines for technology strategy. Collectively, the forecasts, exemplars, and guidelines should help improve understanding of the rising wave of creative destruction and advance research on forecasting, technology, and strategy.

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The Delphi Technique

Cited by 90 publications

References 6 publications

Success in Israeli high-tech start-ups; Critical factors and process

Success in Israeli high-tech start-ups; Critical factors and process

Long‐term trends in the recreational lobster fishery of Florida, United States: Landings, effort, and implications for management

Business Strategy for the Technology Revolution: Competing at the Edge of Creative Destruction

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