The Delphi method

Sackman, Harold

doi:10.1016/0016-3287(76)90011-2

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…They noted that such a correction reduced the ratio between highest and lowest estimates from 3:1 to 2:1, thus narrowing the range of the consensus. 53 The importance of such a correction was not whether the coordinators were justified in substituting a consensus quantifier for each respondent"s questionnaire. Rather the importance was that Helmer"s team moved the studies" final outcome further away from each participant"s response by trusting their panel"s opinion on the quantifiers.…”

Section: Emergence Of Project Delphimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the pre-Cold War historical roots of this field goes back to Bayesian inferences as they incorporate newly emerging data. 53 Statistical tools such as trend analysis via regression were among the first tools futurists used to study the future.…”

Section: The Science Of Studying the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Statistics became deeply entrenched in the ways of thinking, of futurist and non-futurist scientists alike. 53 Ian Hacking, The Emergence of Probability (Cambridge University Press 2006) By the 1970s forecasting became a more dynamic endeavor. Just as John Forbes Nash, Jr.…”

Section: The Science Of Studying the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sackman strongly opposed the use of the Delphi method by the scientific community until it met relevant American Psychological Association (APA) standards for surveys. 53 In turn, defenders of the Delphi method described Sackman"s comparison with the APA standards as "mundane, boring and prosaic" and accused him of failing to "point out the importance of practical and procedural advantage" the technique provided. 54 Over the following years, other investigators continued to debate the reliability or validity of the Delphi technique.…”

Section: A Futures Societies Organizations Think Tanks and Confermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…54 These early Hungarian futures studies efforts had various motivations and funding sources. Kovács and other practitioners defined their goal in studying futures as providing better options and information to decision-makers, but to do so with a mathematical basis, as 53 Géza Kovács, "On the History of Hungarian Futures Research (1965)(1966)(1967)(1968)(1969)(1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980), in Eds. Ervin Bona, Eve Gabor, Pal Sarkany, and David Biro, Future Research in Hungary, Akademiai Kiado, Budapest 1983) pp.…”

Section: An "Iron Curtain" Study -Hungarian Futures Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The American futures studies movement (1965-1975); its roots, motivations, and influences

Tolon

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In the 1960s and 1970s many Americans of widely dissimilar motivations used the study of possible futures as an open forum to express their desires, fears, and visions. Their efforts led to new organizations, publications, conferences, and university programs, which constituted an intellectual movement with far-reaching influences. The emergence of post-WWII futurism is a multi-stranded history involving people with diverse motivations and backgrounds who aspired to revolutionize policymaking at all levels. Their efforts crossed national borders and often transcended Cold War divisions. Many futurists hailed from governmental, business, or scientific backgrounds and advocated for issues ranging from national economic planning boards, or "future-consciousness" at corporate levels of decision-making, to sustainable ecological practices. One of their many historical strands went back to the early Cold War years and the philosopher-mathematicians employed by the RAND Corporation. Given the sensitive forecasting challenges brought by Cold War unknowns, these architects of futurist methodologies believed they needed to devise bettermore scientificopinion technologies. Their search for improving the tools, such as the Delphi method, of future-minded decisionmaking continued into the 1960s and 1970s. While qualitative assessments still reigned supreme in the social sciences, quantitative analysis became increasingly important during the 1960s. Futurists used social, political, and economic indicators to study alternative futures and comment on their presents. These futures researchers prized the quantification of past and present values both for physical and social concepts. From these numbers, they aspired to clarify the future: how to predict and understand it, and ultimately how to change it for the better. v Futurists cared about many things, not only about perfecting their methodologies or epistemic foundations, but also about addressing current, pragmatic, and popular issues. The desire to disseminate their ideas more widely and have their methodology gain greater influence compelled futurists to organize and formalize their field. The field"s momentum slowed down by the 1980s as many critics disapproved of futurist methods and the deterministic, wishful, or simplistic outlooks that some futurists imagined. Although the movement in the United States was unique, other international case-studies developed in distinct yet comparable ways. Although futures researchers around the globe for centuries had enjoyed speculating about the future, this twentieth-century movement promised better predictions that were more systematic, detailed, controlled, quantitative, and expert.

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Section: Emergence Of Project Delphimentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Science Of Studying the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Science Of Studying the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Futures Societies Organizations Think Tanks and Confermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: An "Iron Curtain" Study -Hungarian Futures Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations