The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

Abstract

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. q

Evaluation of seismogenesis behavior in Himalayan belt using data mining tools for forecasting

“…The study has been done by studying occurrences of frequent EQs above a certain threshold if there are multiple events having spatial, preferred distribution within a specified period of time [45]. A study of the complex seismicity of the Himalayan region by the statistical analysis of historical EQ data is ineffective without the prior care concerning the completeness of historical catalogues used in the modeling [39]. A study of frequency of the EQ magnitudes [ Fig.…”

A bivariate compound Poisson model for the occurrence of foreshock and aftershock sequences in Turkey

“…Developing the stochastic model for the occurrence of main‐sequence earthquakes, Knopoff (1971) and Vere‐Jones (1978) proposed the stress release model. Several studies have applied the stress release model to reproduce the recurrence of large earthquakes in various seismically active regions (Lu and Vere‐Jones, 2000; Bebbington and Harte, 2001, 2003; Zhuang et al ., 2002; Lu, 2005). The stress release model assumes that the occurrence probability of an earthquake in a seismically active region depends on the mean stress level in the region.…”