The decline in youth drinking in England—is everyone drinking less? A quantile regression analysis

Abstract

Background and AimsYouth alcohol consumption has declined significantly during the past 15 years in many highincome countries, which may have significant public health benefits. However, if the reductions in drinking occur mainly among lighter drinkers who are at lower risk, then rates of alcohol-related harm among young people today and adults in future may not fall in line with consumption. There is conflicting evidence from Swedish school studies, with some suggesting that all young people are drinking less, while others suggest that alcohol consumption among heavier drinkers may be stable or rising while average consumption declines. This paper extends the geographical focus of previous research and examines whether the decline in youth drinking is consistent across the consumption distribution in England. DesignQuantile regression of 15 waves of repeat cross-sectional survey data. Setting England, 2001-16. Participants A total of 31 882 schoolchildren (50.7% male) aged 11-15 who responded to the Smoking Drinking and Drug Use among Young People surveys. Measurements Past-week alcohol consumption in UK units at each fifth percentile of the consumption distribution. Findings Reductions in alcohol consumption occurred at all percentiles of the consumption distribution analysed between 2001 and 2016, but the magnitude of the decline differed across percentiles.The decline in consumption at the 90th percentile [β = À0.21, confidence interval (CI) = À0.24, À0.18] was significantly larger than among either lighter drinkers at the 50th percentile (β = À0.02, CI = À0.02, À0.01) or heavier drinkers at the 95th percentile (β = À0.16, CI = À0.18, À0.13). Conclusions Alcohol consumption among young people in England appears to be declining across the consumption distribution, and peaks among heavy drinkers. The magnitude of this decline differs significantly between percentiles of the consumption distribution, with consumption falling proportionally less among the lightest, moderate and very heaviest youth drinkers.

Decline in alcohol consumption in Russia: Collectivity or polarisation?

“…As a result, the relative impact on the aggregate volume of alcohol consumption decreased for light drinkers and increased for the other groups, with the greatest increase shown by heavy drinkers. Overall, the obtained results support soft collectivity hypothesis, which presumes declines in all percentiles but with significant differences in the scale of the declines rather than supporting the hard collectivity hypothesis, which presumes no significant differences in consumption declines between percentiles [23].…”

“…Similar results were obtained given all drinking groups moved in concert with minor volatilities for some groups (Table S4). Second, we used a quintile regression as an alternative type of modelling [12,22,23] and obtained roughly the same results (Tables S5 and S6). Third, calculations for the whole sample brought similar results with calculations made calculated separately for each sex.…”

“…We also apply a more nuanced definition of collectivity that includes the conceptual categories of hard and soft collectivity. Hard collectivity presumes that trends across all percentiles of the consumption distribution are in the same direction and equivalent in magnitude, whereas soft collectivity simply requires that trends across percentiles be in the same direction, but declines in alcohol consumption can be proportionally different among heavier and lighter drinkers [23].…”

Awareness of product-related information, health messages and warnings on alcohol packaging among adolescents: a cross-sectional survey in the United Kingdom

“…1 Although alcohol consumption among young people in the United Kingdom (UK) has been declining, approximately two-fifths of 11–15 year olds in England have consumed alcohol and almost a third of 16–24 year old drinkers have exceeded binge-drinking thresholds in the past week. 2 The inclusion of health messaging and product-related information on alcohol packaging is a low-cost and high-reach intervention that may have the potential to moderate alcohol use and reduce higher-risk consumption among young people. 3 , 4 …”

The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures: how alcohol became everyone's problem

“…Indeed, some researchers suggested a potential polarization of consumption where the trends among the heaviest drinkers would be at odds with those in the broader population [9]. This has renewed the field's interest in Skog's work, with a series of recent papers examining the distribution of consumption and scholarly debate around the definitions and interpretations of collective shifts [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. The theories of Ledermann and Skog thus continue to inspire and provoke scholars some 50 years after they were first outlined and are most relevant still.…”