The cyclonic activity and frequency of dangerous weather phenomena over the territory of Belarus

Sumak, Katsiaryna; Semenova, Inna

doi:10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-79-93

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…For this observation our results agree well. Similar ndings were obtained for the territory of neighboring countries (e.g., Sumak and Semenova, 2019). However, statistically signi cant trends were not observed in all regions of Russia (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Romanovskaya

2022

Preprint

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Analytical studies of regional trends in the number of extreme weather events, primarily causing social and economic damage, are lacking in Russia, although this is the basis for developing mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change. Therefore, we investigated trends in the number of extreme weather events that caused damage in Russia by their type, their distribution by regions and identified regions where urgent adaptation is needed. The results show an increase in the number of meteorological extreme events with damage for 1990–2019 in Russia from 130 to 257 events per year on average for the 1990s and 2010s, respectively (statistical significance of the trend at the 0.001 level). However, the proportion of events with damage in relation to events which did not cause damage decreased over this period by almost a third (from 63–47%). This can be explained both by a possible methodological inconsistency in the time series of damage events and by more effective adaptation measures. The trends and regional distribution of extreme hot and cold temperature events are not unequivocally consistent with the literature and show regions with both positive and negative changes in the number of extreme events that caused damage. Statistically significant changes in the number of extreme events of strong winds, heavy rains and soil drought by regions are generally positive and observed only in some southern and central regions of European Russia. These results are in good agreement with the results of other studies. The development and rapid implementation of regional adaptation plans is a priority for these regions, given that these are densely populated areas with predominantly agricultural production.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Romanovskaya

2022

Preprint

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“…Most other regions in the Asian part show inconsistent, mostly decreasing trends in the number of soil drought extreme events (fig 4e). Similar results obtained for observed and projected climate regimes in Russia in other studies (Spinoni et al 2014;Khlebnikova et al 2019; Report on the peculiarities of climate…, 2022; Seneviratne et al 2021).…”

Section: Regional Trends In Extreme Weather Events Associated With So...supporting

confidence: 87%

“…Continued warming will cause statistically significant changes in extreme events globally and for large regions (e.g., Masson-Delmotte et al 2021). Many studies report observed and future increases in temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, and drought extremes and its regional distribution around the world (Spinoni et al 2014;Donat et al 2016;Knutson and Zeng, 2018;Dunn et al 2020;Wu et al 2021;Seneviratne et al 2021;Rabiei et al 2022). According to the World Meteorological Organization's report (WMO, 2021), the number of disasters increased fivefold in the 50-year period from 1970 to 2019, because of climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Romanovskaya

2024

GES

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Increased number of extreme weather events is one of the most serious hazards of climate change over the territory of Russia. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of the number of extreme weather events that caused social and economic damage in the country and its regions. This paper analyzes changes in the total number of events with damage (meteorological for the period 1991-2019 and agrometeorological – for 2004-2019), disaggregated by their types and by regions. The Mann-Kendall test is applied to detect statistical significance (0.05 level of significance, normal distribution). The results show an increase in the number of meteorological extreme events with damage for 1990-2019 in Russia from 130 to 257 events per year on average for the 1990s and 2010s, respectively, while the proportion of events with damage in relation to the total number of extreme events decreased over this period. We found statistically significant trends only for a few types of extreme events: hot and cold temperature, strong wind, heavy rain and droughts (increase by 0.9, 9.4, 11.4, 25.9 and 13.3 events/10 years, respectively). Number of heavy rain precipitation events is the only unidirectional stable growth trend. Unusual increasing trend in cold extreme events with damage in Russia can be attributed to the greater damage to the economy and population from cold extremes than hot ones. The regional distribution of trends across the territory of the Russian Federation is heterogeneous. However, significant changes in the number of extreme events of strong winds, heavy rains and soil drought by regions are statistically positive and observed mostly in some southern and central regions of European part and the Western Siberia. The development of adaptation plans to the negative effects of climate change is a first priority for these regions. A system for monitoring economic and non-economic damage from extreme events must be developed in Russia.

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“…И. Мельник, И. В. Буяков, В. Д. Чернышев в результате изучения изменения количества и вида атмосферных осадков в холодный период года на территории Беларуси (1961-2018) отметили рост количества осадков и амплитуды их колебаний, а также уменьшение твердых осадков и увеличение жидких осадков [15]. Е. Н. Сумак и И. Г. Семёнова в ходе исследования циклонической активности и повторяемости ОЯ над территорией Беларуси (1995-2015) установили, что ОЯ вызывали лишь циклонические вихри южных и западных траекторий [16].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Aerosynoptic conditions for the formation of winter thunderstorms on the example of the Minsk-2 airfield

Luksha¹,

Novik²

2022

Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geolo

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In the conditions of modern climate warming, there is an increase in the number of hazardous weather phenomena, including thunderstorm activity, not only in the warm, but also in the cold season. The article analyses the occurrence of winter thunderstorms (October – March) and their connections with aerosynoptic conditions are revealed on the example of the Minsk-2 airfield for the period from 1989 to 2020. The determination of these relationships is necessary to make a qualitative forecast of thunderstorms as one of the hazardous weather phenomena for aviation. It was found that for the formation of winter thunderstorms requires the arrival of warm (with an air temperature above 0 °C) and moist air mass from the south or southwest, associated with the displacement of intensively deepening North Atlantic or southern cyclones in the stage of a young cyclone; the passage of primary and secondary active cold fronts with speeds of more than 30 km/h, cold fronts with waves and occlusion fronts, which provide the rise of warm and moist air of the lower troposphere; the existence of convective instability in the atmosphere; the presence tongue of warm and humid air, which is replaced by a trough of cold, at the level of 850 mb; the presence of low-jet currents and positive vorticity at the level of 700 mb and level of 500 mb, indicating the rise of an air particle; the presence of powerful jet currents of the western quarter at the level of 300 mb, enhancing convective processes. The obtained results can be used to replenish the methodological base on the forecasting of hazardous convective phenomena in Belarus, and also as recommendations for the forecast of thunderstorms in the cold season in the operational work of weather forecasters.

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The cyclonic activity and frequency of dangerous weather phenomena over the territory of Belarus

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Aerosynoptic conditions for the formation of winter thunderstorms on the example of the Minsk-2 airfield

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