The current and future risk of spread of Leptotrombidium deliense and Leptotrombidium scutellare in mainland China

Ma, Tian; Hao, Mengmeng; Chen, Shuai; Ding, Fangyu

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156986

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In the present study, the results of the BRT models showed that elevation and climate factors explained most of the occurrence pattern of L. scutellare (> 91%), with elevation contributing the strongest to the prediction of the occurrence pattern. This result is in contrast with those of a recent study in which it was found that elevation contributed little (no more than 5%) to the species in their models [ 22 ]. This difference can be explained by the fact that our point data contains more accurate information on the presence of L. scutellare along the elevational gradients.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…However, our results are in contrast with a previous projection in the distribution tendency. A recent study found that both L. scutellare and L. deliense had broader suitability ranges in the high RCP scenario, suggesting a future northward expansion of geographic distribution [ 22 ]. This discrepancy may be attributed to their occurrence points not representing the preferable elevation of L. scutellare [ 24 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The training set extraction, BRT model fitting and predictive performance evaluation were repeated 100 times. We averaged the values provided by the repetitions to increase the robustness of the modeling performance [ 22 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These results suggest that changes in the distribution of the vector may affect the corresponding epidemic patterns. A recent study outlined the potential distribution range under simulated future environments of the two most widely distributed vector chiggers L. deliense and L. scutellare in mainland China [ 22 ]. Another study mapping the distributions of blood-sucking mites and mite-borne agents also indicated that L. scutellare harbors the highest variety of pathogens [ 23 ], which is turn increases the exposure risk to relevant diseases for the human population where the vector species occurs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential distribution of Leptotrombidium scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces, China, and its association with mite-borne disease transmission

Song

Yin

et al. 2023

Parasites Vectors

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Background Leptotrombidium scutellare is one of the six main vectors of scrub typhus in China and is a putative vector of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). This mite constitutes a large portion of the chigger mite community in southwest China. Although empirical data on its distribution are available for several investigated sites, knowledge of the species’ association with human well-being and involvement in the prevalence of mite-borne diseases remains scarce. Methods Occurrence data on the chigger mite were obtained from 21 years (2001–2021) of field sampling. Using boosted regression tree (BRT) ecological models based on climate, land cover and elevation variables, we predicted the environmental suitability for L. scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces. The potential distribution range and shifts in the study area for near-current and future scenarios were mapped and the scale of L. scutellare interacting with human activities was evaluated. We tested the explanatory power of the occurrence probability of L. scutellare on incidences of mite-borne diseases. Results Elevation and climate factors were the most important factors contributing to the prediction of the occurrence pattern of L. scutellare. The most suitable habitats for this mite species were mainly concentrated around high-elevation areas, with predictions for the future showing a trend towards a reduction. Human activity was negatively correlated with the environmental suitability of L. scutellare. The occurrence probability of L. scutellare in Yunnan Province had a strong explanatory power on the epidemic pattern of HFRS but not scrub typhus. Conclusions Our results emphasize the exposure risks introduced by L. scutellare in the high-elevation areas of southwest China. Climate change may lead to a range contraction of this species towards areas of higher elevation and lessen the associated exposure risk. A comprehensive understanding of the transmission risk requires more surveillance efforts. Graphical Abstract

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential distribution of Leptotrombidium scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces, China, and its association with mite-borne disease transmission

Song

Yin

et al. 2023

Parasites Vectors

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“…The R packages gbm version 2.1.8.1 (Greenwell et al, 2022) and dismo version 1.3-14 (Hijmans et al, 2023) were adopted to construct BRT models based on the R version 4.2.2 statistical programming environment (R Core Team, 2022). A tree complexity of five, a learning rate of .005, and a bagging fraction of 75% were used for the primary analysis as previously studied (Ma et al, 2022). A training set consists of 75% of the data points that are randomly sampled without replacement, and the remaining 25% is used as the testing set.…”

Section: Modeling Of H Longicornis Distribution In the Mainland Of Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China

Ding,

Ge,

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi‐model, multi‐scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030–2039, 2050–2059, and 2080–2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030–2039, 2050–2059, and 2080–2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.

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Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018

Qian,

Wu,

Zhu

et al. 2024

BMC Public Health

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Background Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control. Methods This study utilized a Bayesian space–time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions. Results Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882. Conclusions These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.

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The current and future risk of spread of Leptotrombidium deliense and Leptotrombidium scutellare in mainland China

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

Potential distribution of Leptotrombidium scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces, China, and its association with mite-borne disease transmission

Potential distribution of Leptotrombidium scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces, China, and its association with mite-borne disease transmission

Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018

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