The Croonian Lecture 2004 Risk: food, fact and fantasy

Abstract

We all take risks, but most of the time we do not notice them. We are generally bad at judging the risks we take, and in the end, for some of us, this will prove fatal. Eating, like everything else in life, is not risk free. Is that next mouthful pure pleasure, or will it give you food poisoning? Will it clog your arteries as well as filling your stomach? This lecture weaves together three strands-the public understanding of science, the perception of risk and the role of science in informing government policy-as it explains how food risks are assessed and managed by government and explores the boundaries between the responsibilities of the individual and the regulator. In doing so, it draws upon the science of risk assessment as well as our attitudes to risk in relation to issues such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, dioxins in salmon and diet and obesity.

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

“…In principle, similar kinds of approaches could be applied to other kinds of question too; for example, estimating the probability of the emergence of a novel pathogen (see §5), or the probability that introduction of a pathogen will lead to an epidemic. A significant challenge to risk modellers (whatever methodology is used) is accurate communication of the results, particularly to decision makers who may be unfamiliar with the technical details of the analyses [24,25]. It is now widely accepted that formal measures of uncertainty (typically 95% confidence/ credible intervals or a full depiction of the range of outputs obtained) must be linked to the 'headline' result.…”

“…A significant challenge to risk modellers (whatever methodology is used) is accurate communication of the results, particularly to decision makers who may be unfamiliar with the technical details of the analyses [ 24 , 25 ]. It is now widely accepted that formal measures of uncertainty (typically 95% confidence/credible intervals or a full depiction of the range of outputs obtained) must be linked to the ‘headline’ result.…”

Risk, uncertainty and regulation

“…When I was Chairman of the Food Standards Agency, I compiled a table of relative food risks by estimating the number of deaths per year attributable to various causes [11]. The big risks associated with the food you eat are the dietary contributions to chronic disease: heart disease, stroke and cancer.…”