The CP‐ABM approach for modelling COVID‐19 infection dynamics and quantifying the effects of non‐pharmaceutical interventions

Novaković, Aleksandar; Marshall, A.H.

doi:10.1016/j.patcog.2022.108790

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(60 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, others [ 39 ] controversially discussed the conclusion made by those authors. On the other hand, there are various later studies demonstrating the efficacy of NPI on infection rates [ 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 ]. By contrast, in a recent study from Canada it was shown that a high level of NPI had only minor effect on viral containment [ 45 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Germany and the United Kingdom Indicates That More SARS-CoV-2 Circulation and Less Restrictions in the Warm Season Might Reduce Overall COVID-19 Burden

Meintrup

Nowak-Machen

Borgmann

2022

Life

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

(1) Background: Between March 2020 and January 2022 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused five infection waves in Europe. The first and the second wave was caused by wildtype SARS-CoV-2, while the following waves were caused by the variants of concern Alpha, Delta, and Omicron respectively. (2) Methods: In the present analysis, the first four waves were compared in Germany and the UK, in order to examine the COVID-19 epidemiology and its modulation by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). (3) Results: The number of COVID-19 patients on intensive care units and the case fatality rate were used to estimate disease burden, the excess mortality to assess the net effect of NPI and other measures on the population. The UK was more severely affected by the first and the third wave while Germany was more affected by the second wave. The UK had a higher excess mortality during the first wave, afterwards the excess mortality in both countries was nearly identical. While most NPI were lifted in the UK in July 2021, the measures were kept and even aggravated in Germany. Nevertheless, in autumn 2021 Germany was much more affected, nearly resulting in a balanced sum of infections and deaths compared to the UK. Within the whole observation period, in Germany the number of COVID-19 patients on ICUs was up to four times higher than in the UK. Our results show that NPI have a limited effect on COVID-19 burden, seasonality plays a crucial role, and a higher virus circulation in a pre-wave situation could be beneficial. (4) Conclusions: Although Germany put much more effort and resources to fight the pandemic, the net balance of both countries was nearly identical, questioning the benefit of excessive ICU treatments and of the implementation of NPI, especially during the warm season.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Germany and the United Kingdom Indicates That More SARS-CoV-2 Circulation and Less Restrictions in the Warm Season Might Reduce Overall COVID-19 Burden

Meintrup

Nowak-Machen

Borgmann

2022

Life

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…They have been used in the recent years to model the spread of COVID-19 (Kerr et al 2021;Cuevas 2020;Silva et al 2020;Novakovic & Marshall 2022), Flu (Arduin et al 2017;O'Neil & Sattenspiel 2010;Roche et al 2011;Rakowski et al 2010), Measles (Hunter & Kelleher 2021), Cholera (Crooks & Hailegiorgis 2014), Ebola (Ajelli et al 2015;Merler et al 2015), Tuberculosis (De Espíndola et al 2011Kasaie et al 2014), etc. ABMs can be used to test various scenarios, such as the effectiveness of different intervention strategies (e.g., Merler et al 2015;Kerr et al 2021;Novakovic & Marshall 2022, the impact of behaviour changes on disease transmission (e.g. Valle et al 2012;van Dijck et al 2022), and the role of demographic and environmental factors (e.g., Alzu'bi et al 2021;Adiga et al 2018).…”

Section: 7mentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-Based Modelling of Mpox Infection Dynamics: Simulating Disease Transmission and Control Strategies

Ajmal,

Hunter,

Duggan

et al. 2024

JASSS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Mpox is a viral disease caused by the monkey pox virus (MPXV) of the Poxviridae family. It is similar to smallpox and cowpox. Mpox is not categorized as a sexually transmitted infection, however, most transmission in the recent global outbreak has been attributed to be through men who have sex with men (MSM). Agentbased modelling (ABM) is an effective approach to simulate the spread of Mpox because it enables the detailed representation of heterogeneity among individuals or sub-populations, including variations in behaviour, susceptibility to disease, and contact patterns. This is crucial for accurately modelling diseases in populations with long tailed distributions of characteristics such as sexual activity, that has been seen in the recent Mpox outbreak. Two ABMs are presented in this paper which simulate the spread of Mpox in an artificial population. The parameters for contact formation and dissolution are drawn from the NATSAL-3 dataset (National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles) (Mercer et al. 2013). The presented ABMs are based on the principles of the classic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model and complexity is further added to break the assumptions of homogeneous mixing and populations. The first ABM is based on an heterogeneous population, consisting of people from two self-identified genders (male and female) and three sexual preferences: homosexual, bi-sexual and heterosexual. The second ABM is a subset of the first ABM, that focuses on the MSM population, which is considered to be at high-risk of Mpox. We report a set of experiments modelling relevant scenarios by number of imported cases, number of super-spreader events, and different vaccination strategies. Our analysis concludes that Mpox infection reaches locally stable disease-free equilibrium in the absence of concurrent partnerships. Our simulations demonstrate that prioritizing vaccines for the MSM population can significantly reduce the effective R value from 1.62 to 0.19, highlighting the potential impact of targeted vaccination strategies in mitigating Mpox transmission.

show abstract

“…Numerous recent studies have discussed the epidemiological model of COVID-19. A Novakovic, and AH Marshall [6] proposed a novel methodology based on the hybridization of change point detection and agent-based modeling techniques for modeling COVID-19 infection dynamics and quantifying the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on a national level. In the related study [7] , the authors discussed the COVID-19 humanitarian response plan for high-priority countries as an optimal distribution model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 and Rumors: A Dynamic Nested Optimal Control Model

Hezam

Almshnanah

Mubarak

et al. 2023

Pattern Recognition

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The CP‐ABM approach for modelling COVID‐19 infection dynamics and quantifying the effects of non‐pharmaceutical interventions

Cited by 12 publications

References 41 publications

A Comparison of Germany and the United Kingdom Indicates That More SARS-CoV-2 Circulation and Less Restrictions in the Warm Season Might Reduce Overall COVID-19 Burden

A Comparison of Germany and the United Kingdom Indicates That More SARS-CoV-2 Circulation and Less Restrictions in the Warm Season Might Reduce Overall COVID-19 Burden

Agent-Based Modelling of Mpox Infection Dynamics: Simulating Disease Transmission and Control Strategies

COVID-19 and Rumors: A Dynamic Nested Optimal Control Model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About