The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data

Horváth, Ákos; Kay, Benjamin S.; Wix, Carlo

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3832359

Cited by 19 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Governments worldwide responded by imposing shutdown orders that restricted the operation of businesses and encouraged (or even required) households to “stay at home” and practice social distancing in an effort to curtail the spread of COVID‐19. While these response measures helped mitigate the spread of infection, they triggered or abetted recessions worldwide, as made evident by the sharp decreases in consumer spending (Chetty et al., 2020; Horvath et al., 2020), increases in unemployment (Beland et al., 2020; Borjas & Cassidy, 2020; Dingel & Neiman, 2020; Koren & Pető, 2020), and volatility in equity returns (Alfaro et al., 2020; Baker et al., 2020; Hassan et al., 2020; Ling et al., 2020; Milcheva, 2021; Ramelli & Wagner, 2020; van Dijk et al., 2020). To reverse these economic repercussions of pandemic mitigation efforts, additional government interventions were designed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders

D’Lima

Lopez

Pradhan³

2022

Real Estate Economics

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This paper provides novel evidence on pricing effects in housing markets following government shutdown responses to COVID‐19 using microlevel data on U.S. residential property transactions. We find that post‐shutdown pricing effects not only depend on population density but also the size and structural density of properties. The average price of a three‐bedroom property fell by approximately 1.4% in densely populated locations (e.g., downtown) but increased by about 1.5% in low‐density locations (e.g., suburbs) where shutdowns were enacted. The effects are more drastic for properties with fewer bedrooms. We also document a significant decrease in sales for markets under a shutdown.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders

D’Lima

Lopez

Pradhan³

2022

Real Estate Economics

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“…The first study to do so was Baker et al (2020) using US fintech data and following this Opportunity Insights (Chetty et al, 2020a,b) produced a dashboard using multiple data sources to track regional US consumption behavior alongside other economic indicators. 5 Beyond the US similar exercises have been carried out to understand household consumption in the early stages of the pandemic -showing remarkably consistent results (Andersen et al, 2020;Bounie et al, 2020;Bourquin et al, 2020;Campos-Vazquez and Esquivel, 2020;Carvalho et al, 2020;Chen et al, 2020;Chronopoulos et al, 2020;Horvath et al, 2020;Surico et al, 2020;Watanabe et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data

Gathergood,

Guttman-Kenney

2020

Preprint

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We find UK "local lockdowns" of cities and small regions, focused on limiting how many people a household can interact with and in what settings, are effective in turning the tide on rising positive COVID-19 cases. Yet, by focusing on household mixing within the home, these local lockdowns have not inflicted the large declines in consumption accompanying the March 2020 national lockdown, which limited all social contact. Our study harnesses a new source of real-time, transaction-level consumption data that we show to be highly correlated with official statistics. The effectiveness of local lockdowns are evaluated applying a difference-in-difference approach which exploits nearby localities not subject to local lockdowns as comparison groups. Our findings indicate that policymakers may be able to contain virus outbreaks without killing local economies. However, the ultimate effectiveness of local lockdowns is expected to be highly dependent on co-ordination between regions and an effective system of testing.

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“…Following this, Opportunity Insights (Chetty et al, 2020a,b) produced a dashboard using multiple data sources to track regional US consumption behavior alongside other economic indicators. 4 Beyond the US similar exercises have been carried out to understand household consumption in the early stages of the pandemic -showing remarkably consistent results (Andersen et al, 2020;Bounie et al, 2020b,a;Bourquin et al, 2020;Campos-Vazquez and Esquivel, 2020;Carvalho et al, 2020;Chen et al, 2020;Chronopoulos et al, 2020;Davenport et al, 2020b;Hodbod et al, 2020;Horvath et al, 2020;Jaravel and O'Connell, 2020;O'Connell et al, 2020;Surico et al, 2020;Watanabe et al, 2020). Analysis of JP Morgan Chase data (Cox et al, 2020;Farrell et al, 2020) has described in detail how household balance sheets have changed as a result of the COVID-19 recession and how households have responded to fiscal stimulus.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending

Gathergood¹,

Gunzinger²,

Guttman-Kenney³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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We show the recovery in consumer spending in the United Kingdom through the second half of 2020 is unevenly distributed across regions. We utilise Fable Data: a real-time source of consumption data that is a highly correlated, leading indicator of Bank of England and Office for National Statistics data. The UK's recovery is heavily weighted towards the "home counties" around outer London and the South. We observe a stark contrast between strong online spending growth while offline spending contracts. The strongest recovery in spending is seen in online spending in the "commuter belt" areas in outer London and the surrounding localities and also in areas of high second home ownership, where working from home (including working from second homes) has significantly displaced the location of spending. Year-on-year spending growth in November 2020 in localities facing the UK's new tighter "Tier 3" restrictions (mostly the midlands and northern areas) was 38.4% lower compared with areas facing the less restrictive "Tier 2" (mostly London and the South). These patterns had been further exacerbated during November 2020 when a second national lockdown was imposed. To prevent such COVID-19-driven regional inequalities from becoming persistent we propose governments introduce temporary, regionally-targeted interventions in 2021. The availability of real-time, regional data enables policymakers to efficiently decide when, where and how to implement such regional interventions and to be able to rapidly evaluate their effectiveness to consider whether to expand, modify or remove them.

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The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data

Cited by 19 publications

References 30 publications

COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders

COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders

The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data

Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending

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