The course of the UK COVID 19 pandemic; no measurable impact of new variants

Ellis, David Sj; Papadopoulos, Dimitris I; Mukherjee, Samrat Kumar; Ukwu, U; Chari, N; Charitopoulos, Konstantinos; Donkov, Ivo; Bishara, Samuel

doi:10.1101/2021.03.16.21253534

“…That VOC are more transmissible is based on mathematical modeling, and not certain (111). Another mathematical model showed that the course of the UK pandemic was not altered by the emergence of the B.1.1.7 VOC (112).…”

Section: Objection Replymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If accurate, a 30-60% increase in case fatality rate would mean Emergency Management principles are even more important to protect the older population, as the infection fatality rate would still be very low in younger people [since there would be no difference in relative risk increase by age (111,112,114)], and the cost-benefit balance still very strongly favor no lockdowns.…”

Section: Objection Replymentioning

confidence: 99%

The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in High Income Countries Such as Canada: A Better Way Forward Without Lockdowns

Joffe

¹

,

Redman²

2021

Front. Public Health

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The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused tragic morbidity and mortality. In attempt to reduce this morbidity and mortality, most countries implemented population-wide lockdowns. Here we show that the lockdowns were based on several flawed assumptions, including “no one is protected until everyone is protected,” “lockdowns are highly effective to reduce transmission,” “lockdowns have a favorable cost-benefit balance,” and “lockdowns are the only effective option.” Focusing on the latter, we discuss that Emergency Management principles provide a better way forward to manage the public emergency of the pandemic. Specifically, there are three priorities including the following: first, protect those most at risk by separating them from the threat (mitigation); second, ensure critical infrastructure is ready for people who get sick (preparation and response); and third, shift the response from fear to confidence (recovery). We argue that, based on Emergency Management principles, the age-dependent risk from SARS-CoV-2, the minimal (at best) efficacy of lockdowns, and the terrible cost-benefit trade-offs of lockdowns, we need to reset the pandemic response. We can manage risk and save more lives from both COVID-19 and lockdowns, thus achieving far better outcomes in both the short- and long-term.

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“…47 Another study found that the course of the pandemic in the UK was not altered by the VOC B.1.1.7. 48 Second, that VOC are more lethal. 49 This is based on UK studies that used the same data on identified community cases, and had limitations, including that over 50% of cases were missing from the analysis, only 9% of deaths in the UK over the time period were included in the analysis, and the lack of adjustment for co-morbidities.…”

Section: Objections Consideredmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying Philosophy, Logic, and Rational Argumentation to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 Pandemic Response

Joffe¹,

Redman²

2021

Preprint

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Part of philosophy is to subject assertions to critical scrutiny, clarifying exactly what the assertion is saying, its implications, and thus its direct plausibility. The goal is to ensure clarity, logical consistency, and rational argumentation in order to arrive at reasoned conclusions. A common problem is that arguments have missing implied premises that, unless explicitly stated, are mistakenly assumed to be true. Here we subject conclusions made regarding the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to critical scrutiny, revealing their implied premises so that these premises can be explicitly examined and refuted. Specifically, we refute the conclusions that “no one is protected until everyone is protected” and “population lockdowns are required to protect those at high risk of adverse outcomes.” In the end, we argue for the conclusion that “an Emergency Management principles based response to the pandemic, compared to population-wide lockdowns, offers a way to prevent more adverse outcomes from COVID-19, better prevent overwhelmed healthcare, and prevent most of the collateral damage to the wellbeing of the population that has resulted from the lockdowns.”

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“…That VOC are more transmissible is based on mathematical modelling, and not certain (107). Another mathematical model showed that the course of the UK pandemic was not altered by the emergence of the B.1.1.7 VOC (108). That VOC are more deadly is based on studies that used the same UK data, excluded >50% [and even more of the deaths] of the population from analyses for 'missingness', included only 8% of UK COVID-19 deaths, did not control for co-morbidities as a confounder, and only examined case fatality rate (109,110).…”

Section: Objection Replymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The recent surge in India with the delta VOC still (as of April 30, 2021) had India ranked in cases and deaths per capita at 114 th and 116 th in the world, and (on April 30, 2021) with daily deaths per million (1.95) and total deaths per million (151) lower than in the European Union (4.68 and 1548 respectively) and worldwide (1.65 and 408 respectively) (113). If accurate, a 30-60% increase in case fatality rate would mean Emergency Management principles are even more important to protect the older population, as the infection fatality rate would still be very low in younger people (since there would be no difference in relative risk increase by age (107,108,110)), and the cost-benefit balance still very strongly favor no lockdowns. Current vaccines are effective for the UK B.1.1.7 VOC.…”

Section: Objection Replymentioning

confidence: 99%

The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in High Income Countries Such as Canada: A Better Way Forward Without Lockdowns

Joffe¹,

Redman²

2021

Preprint

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused tragic morbidity and mortality. In attempt to reduce this morbidity and mortality, most countries implemented population-wide lockdowns. Here we show that the lockdowns were based on several flawed assumptions, including “no one is protected until everyone is protected,” “lockdowns are highly effective to reduce transmission,” “lockdowns have a favorable cost-benefit balance,” and “lockdowns are the only effective option.” Focusing on the latter, we discuss that Emergency Management principles provide a better way forward to manage the public emergency of the pandemic. Specifically, there are three priorities including the following: first, protect those most at risk by separating them from the threat (mitigation); second, ensure critical infrastructure is ready for people who get sick (preparation and response); and third, shift the response from fear to confidence (recovery). We argue that, based on Emergency Management principles, the age-dependent risk from SARS-CoV-2, the minimal (at best) efficacy of lockdowns, and the terrible cost-benefit trade-offs of lockdowns, we need to reset the pandemic response. We can manage risk and save more lives from both COVID-19 and lockdowns, thus achieving far better outcomes in both the short- and long-term.

show abstract

The course of the UK COVID 19 pandemic; no measurable impact of new variants

Cited by 3 publications

References 22 publications

The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in High Income Countries Such as Canada: A Better Way Forward Without Lockdowns

The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in High Income Countries Such as Canada: A Better Way Forward Without Lockdowns

Applying Philosophy, Logic, and Rational Argumentation to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 Pandemic Response

The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in High Income Countries Such as Canada: A Better Way Forward Without Lockdowns

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