The Counting Problem

Smith, J. Maynard

doi:10.4324/9781315133638-11

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...

Part 1: Uncertainty Principles1

Citation Types

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Year Published

2020

Publication Types

Select...

Article1

Relationship

Self Cite0

Independent1

Authors

Journals

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The scale of economic vulnerability to cyber attacks is not only material but also very highly uncertain: for example, Lloyd’s recently estimated that the potential economic impact of a malicious hack on a cloud service provider ranges from $15 to $121 billion (Maynard & Ng, 2017), highlighting factors such as the nature of the industry sectors exposed and duration of the outage. This is confounded by contagion risk – such that it is not clear where an attack might arise from, or why.…”

Section: Part 1: Uncertainty Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing uncertainty: Principles for improved decision making

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty. Face up to uncertainty Deconstruct the problem Don’t be fooled (un/intentional biases) Models can be helpful, but also dangerous Think about adaptability and resilience Bring people with you These were arrived at following extensive discussions and literature reviews over a 5-year period. While this is an important topic for actuaries, the intended audience is any decision maker or advisor in any sector (public or private).

show abstract

Section: Part 1: Uncertainty Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%