The Costs of Error in Setting Reference Rates for Reduced Deforestation

Doupé, Patrick

doi:10.3368/le.91.4.723

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…Another suggestion has been to use regression or simulation models that HFLD countries' positions along the forest transition curve (Köthke et al 2014). However, the ability to forecast future emissions is questionable, as land-use changes can accelerate rapidly due to unforeseen events caused by anthropogenic or natural disturbances, or through a gradual accumulation of drivers beyond a tipping point (Müller et al 2014, Doupe 2015, Fletcher et al 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive approaches to REDD+ are needed for countries with high forest cover and low deforestation rates

Schweikart

Mertz²,

Müller³

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) aims to maintain forest carbon stocks above benchmark reference levels through financial compensation. However, countries with high forest cover and low deforestation (HFLD) are unlikely to be compensated fairly if REDD+ initiatives fail to conserve existing forests and to incentivize low deforestation rates. Here we analyze the submissions of forest reference levels (FRLs) of five HFLD countries (Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC], Republic of the Congo [Congo], Guyana, Papua New Guinea, Suriname) to the REDD+ platform of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We assessed if the FRLs are likely to yield compensation payments that maintain carbon stocks above the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and compared them with quantitative emission data. Our results show that only Guyana submitted an FRL that yielded sufficient monetary incentives for low deforestation rates. Compensation payments will likely be insufficient in Suriname, Papua New Guinea, and the Congo. The FRL of the DRC would generate the highest compensation payment (on average US$ 1.3 billion annually). Overall, our results suggest that payments from REDD+ will fail to provide adequate incentives for most HFLD countries. We suggest that the FRL should allow for post hoc adaptation to changes in the drivers of deforestation. This implies that REDD+ schemes need sufficient flexibility to reflect changes in the opportunity costs of alternative land uses, which is particularly acute for HFLD countries where pressure on forests can accumulate rapidly. More adaptive REDD+ likely better rewards HFLD countries in ways that preserve their valuable forest ecosystems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive approaches to REDD+ are needed for countries with high forest cover and low deforestation rates

Schweikart

Mertz²,

Müller³

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…That is, countries would be rewarded for reducing their deforestation below a reference level. A key policy parameter here is the reference rate (Doupe, 2015). If a country has a lower rate of deforestation, compensation is provided for deforestation foregone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic adjustment and the specification of empirical economic models of deforestation

Aisbett¹,

Doupé²,

Tacconi³

2017

Envir. Dev. Econ.

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Tropical deforestation has been one of the most significant global environmental changes of recent decades and has spurred a substantial academic literature. Despite this, the empirical literature provides inconsistent evidence on the role of basic economic determinants of deforestation such as income and population. The authors suggest that one explanation for this inconsistency is a tendency to use incomplete or incorrect dynamic regression specifications. They derive three plausible dynamic empirical model specifications and compare their performance both with each other and with an ad hoc model typical of those used in the literature. Statistical tests support the use of more completely specified models which allow for dynamic adjustment of forest cover.

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“…One major problem is the lack of plausible counterfactual loss rates, which hampers an assessment of external influences on the level of forest loss. Knowing which deforestation rates would be observed under expected, often profit oriented human land-use allocation 7 , is a precondition for sound evaluation of policies with the potential to accelerate or decelerate rates of deforestation 8 . Commonly-cited influences on this rate include command-and-control policies 4 , pre-election promises 9 , armed conflicts 10 or mining 11 , as well as climate anomalies 12 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic benefits of reduced deforestation are offset by excess deforestation – a counterfactual simulation

Knoke

Hanley

Paul

2022

Preprint

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Assessment of the effectiveness of policies to preserve natural forests and the eco-nomic benefits we derive from them is of high international relevance. Here we use a counterfactual simulation approach to compare observed and expected deforesta-tion for Brazil, DR Congo and Indonesia. We reveal changes in the social costs of carbon (SCC), which coincide with command-and-control policies, climate anoma-lies, armed conflicts and pre-election promises. Our simulation of counterfactual country-level deforestation assumes that farmers seek satisfactory land-use profits. The approach integrates market data (1990-2019), but also accounts for heteroge-neous expectations. Phases with reduced deforestation saved 11% to 26% of SCC, while phases with excess deforestation caused 6% to 28% more SCC. In sum, a comparison with counterfactual deforestation levels showed forest savings of 11.1 million hectares (11% of the expected deforestation 2001-2019), but also excess deforestation of 11.3 million hectares. Our results confirm ongoing disastrously high SCC of forest losses.

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The Costs of Error in Setting Reference Rates for Reduced Deforestation

Cited by 3 publications

References 43 publications

Adaptive approaches to REDD+ are needed for countries with high forest cover and low deforestation rates

Adaptive approaches to REDD+ are needed for countries with high forest cover and low deforestation rates

Dynamic adjustment and the specification of empirical economic models of deforestation

Economic benefits of reduced deforestation are offset by excess deforestation – a counterfactual simulation

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