The costs of electoral fraud: establishing the link between electoral integrity, winning an election, and satisfaction with democracy

Abstract

Previous research has shown that voters’ perception of electoral fairness has an impact on their attitudes and behaviors. However, less research has attempted to link objective measurements of electoral integrity on voters’ attitudes about the democratic process. Drawing on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the Quality of Elections Data, we investigate whether cross-national differences in electoral integrity have significant influences on citizens’ level of satisfaction with democracy. We hypothesize that higher levels of observed electoral fraud will have a negative impact on evaluations of the democratic process, and that this effect will be mediated by a respondent’s status as a winner or loser of an election. The article’s main finding is that high levels of electoral fraud are indeed linked to less satisfaction with democracy. However, we show that winning only matters in elections that are conducted in an impartial way. The moment elections start to display the telltale signs of manipulation and malpractice, winning and losing no longer have different effects on voter’s levels of satisfaction with democracy.

Do perceptions of electoral malpractice undermine democratic satisfaction? The US in comparative perspective

“…A number of comparative studies, drawing upon survey evidence from diverse world regions, provide empirical support for the plausibility of these claims (Alvarez et al, 2008; Fortin-Rittberger et al, 2017). For example Bratton and Mattes compared political attitudes in Ghana, Zambia and South Africa, reporting that satisfaction with democracy in these countries is based on an appreciation of political reforms, perceptions of government responsibility and honesty, and guarantees of civil liberties, voting rights and equal treatment under the law, as much as by perceptions of material benefits, improved living standards and the delivery of economic goods (Bratton and Mattes, 2001).…”

“…By contrast, 'sore losers' claim that the election was illegitimate and unfair, that fraud or vote-buying determined the outcome, or even that democracy was flawed. Where there is widespread fraud or malpractice, however, winning and losing no longer influence satisfaction with democracy (Fortin-Rittberger et al, 2017). What may help explain these findings is the role of political leadership cues and media framing of the electoral process.…”

Electoral integrity matters: how electoral process conditions the relationship between political losing and political trust

“…More negative perceptions of the electoral process should then subsequently decrease trust in the political system because (perceived) violations of electoral integrity violate the rules of the democratic game and therefore are bound to disappoint citizens' normative expectations of the political system (Norris 2014). In contrast, the perception that the electoral process was conducted in a free and fair manner should boost citizen confidence in the political system by increasing its perceived accountability and responsiveness, giving citizens the impression that they can effectively shape policy outcomes (Fortin-Rittberger et al 2017;Hooghe and Stiers 2016). Prior research confirms this assumption.…”

“…A recent series of books and other contributions has extensively discussed what causes such deficits (Birch 2007;Lehoucq 2003;Norris 2015), how to detect and measure them (Birch 2011;Bishop and Hoeffler 2016;Hyde and Marinov 2012;Kelley and Kolev 2010;Norris et al 2013Norris et al , 2014bvan Ham 2014), how to promote electoral integrity (Birch 2011;Kelley 2012;Norris 2017;Norris et al 2014a), and why electoral integrity matters (Norris 2014). With respect to the latter question, prior research has studied how violations of electoral integrity can deter voter turnout (Bratton 2008; Martínez i Coma and Trinh 2017; Simpser 2012), lead to post-election violence and even civil war (Norris 2014), and damage the legitimacy of political regimes (Fortin-Rittberger et al 2017;McAllister and White 2014;Norris 2014). This paper adds a new perspective to this literature by asking how electoral integrity affects the way election results translate into citizen attitudes towards the political system.…”

Advancing electronic voting systems in Nigeria's electoral process: legal challenges and future directions

“…Problems in the legal framework, political and administrative problems in the pre-election period and the integrity of elections on election days produce a negative effect on election results. 99 Political will exists when a sufficient set of decision-makers with a common understanding of a particular problem on the formal agenda is committed to supporting a perceived, potentially effective policy solution. Real political will involves a commitment to real solutions to challenges.…”