The Convergence Behind the Curtain

Abstract

This chapter extends applications of unconditional and conditional β-convergence and unconditional σ-convergence analysis to Part I crime rates in a panel data sample of Pennsylvania counties during the period 1990-2015. Temporal structural breaks at specific points in the business cycle during the time frame and spatial breakpoints between rural and urban counties in Pennsylvania are acknowledged in the analysis in order to avoid spurious inferences regarding convergence behavior. Unit-root testing is performed on measures of dispersion as well as directly on the underlying crime-rate series via panel-data tests for non-stationarity. The findings support the existence of both unconditional and conditional β-convergence in the pooled, urban, and rural samples during 1990-2015. Visual and statistical evidence reveals the presence of σ-convergence in the three samples across the time span as well. The comprehensive convergence analysis of appropriately disaggregated data performed in this study offers strong support for the predictions of modernization theory.