The Control of Environmental Stratification on the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity

Kieu, Chanh; Zhang, Dalin

doi:10.1029/2018gl078070

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…When the ELR is less than dry adiabatic lapse rate (DALR), the atmosphere is stratified and inhibits the rising motion of the air parcel. Apart from vertical wind shear (Lin and Chan, 2015;Murakami et al, 2011), the mid-level moisture content (Wang et al, 2010), tropical tropopause layer (Emanuel et al, 2013), and the environmental stratification (Shen et al, 2000;Hill and Lackmann, 2011;Tuleya et al, 2016;Kieu and Zhang, 2018) also play a major role in TC long-term intensity variations. Several model studies have reported that a more stable troposphere tends to be inimical to the development of deep convection, thereby limiting the growth of TC intensity.…”

Section: Thermal Instabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

et al. 2020

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In this paper we examine the epochal changes in the frequency of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the pre-onset and onset phases of the monsoon. We consider three epochs; namely, the early (1955−74), middle (1975−94) and recent (1995−2014) epochs. It is found that the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) decreases throughout the three epochs. Over the Arabian Sea (ARB), however, there is a decrease in the early epoch, before then reaching a minimum in the middle epoch followed by an increase in the recent epoch, thus exhibiting epochal variability. Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters along with Genesis Potential Index (GPI) are examined to understand the frequency variation in cyclogenesis over the ARB and BOB. Over the ARB, thermodynamic factors such as mid-level moisture, surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, and dynamic parameters such as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, are favorable during the early and recent epochs but unfavorable during the middle epoch, and these results are found to be consistent with the observed epochal variability in the frequency of cyclogenesis. However, all these influential parameters are found to have decreased over the BOB during the entire 60-year period.

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Section: Thermal Instabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

et al. 2020

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“…Specifically, the saturated CAPE in the eyewall must be sufficiently larger than the environmental CAPE for TCs to reach the theoretical MPI limit. A recent theoretical and modelling study by Kieu and Wang () and Kieu and Zhang () showed further that the large‐scale tropospheric static stability can additionally impose the potential intensity limit that a TC can reach, thus preventing the development of TCs for any arbitrary SST. In this regard, it is possible that SST must have a lower bound below which TC development would not occur.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model was configured with a spatial-varying resolution for which the highest horizontal resolution of 3 km is set at the inner-core region and gradually increased to 15 km in the outer-core region. There were 40 vertical levels with the vertical resolution of 500 m. For each SST value, a spin-up run of 3 days in which random temperature and wind perturbations of 0.1 K and 0.1 mÁs −1 were added to trigger the convection in the model domain was conducted so that the model atmosphere can develop a vertical moisture and thermodynamic structure consistent with the assigned SST, similar to the approach used in Kieu and Zhang (2018). The model was then integrated for 20 days with an incipient vortex that has maximum surface wind of 10 mÁs −1 , using the sounding profile obtained as an area average of the temperature and moisture at the end of the 3-day spin-up.…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam's coastline

Thanh

Cuong²,

Hiền

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Estimating an upper bound for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a given environment is important for TC intensity forecasts and risk management. While theoretical limits for the TC maximum potential intensity have been well examined in previous studies, the actual maximum intensity ( Vmax) that a TC attains in real atmospheric conditions varies from basin to basin and is subject to much more uncertainties. This study examines different empirical relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and Vmax in the South China Sea that affect Vietnam's coastal region. Using different SST datasets and the TC intensity record from 1982 to 2016, it is shown that Vmax in this area increases slower than the typical linear or exponential function form found in previous studies. Such different dependence of Vmax on SST in the South China Sea is due to the narrow range of SST variation in this region, which is between 24 and 30°C as compared to the range of 15 and 30°C used in previous studies. An alternative functional form based on the natural logarithm of SST is then proposed, which captures better the characteristics of the actual TC maximum intensity in Vietnam's coastal region. Examination of the variability of Vmax also indicates an uptrend of the TC maximum intensity over last 30 years in the South China Sea, which has a potentially large effect on Vietnam's coastal region. This increase of Vmax is consistent with the warmer trend of the SST as projected in the Fifth Assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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“…Also, this study only used the elevation data to perform the segmentation to examine the effect of the elevation gradient on the land use. Other features could be selected and tested to generate the stratification with multiple environmental variables [26,27]. Considering the data availability, only temporal scales of partial driving factors with obviously changes from 2000 to 2015 were updated to simulate the land use in 2030 ( Figure 9).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Elevation-Based Stratification Model for Simulating Land Use Change

Zhang

Yao

2018

Remote Sensing

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Land use significantly influences the planet’s land surface and associated biogeochemical processes. With fierce conflict between various land uses, it is important to project the land system process to support decision-making. Lack of insight into scale differences of land use change (LUC) increased uncertainties in previous studies. To quantify the differences in LUCs within an elevation gradient, in this study, a novel model, the stratified land use change simulation model (SLUCS), was developed by using an elevation-based stratification strategy. This model consists of four modules. First, an elevation-based stratification module to develop a quantitative method for generating stratifications using elevation and land-use characteristics. Second, a non-spatial land-use demand module to forecast the overall land use area and make zoning constraints to simulate LUCs. Third, a stratified suitability estimation module that uses the stratified logistic regression method to reveal the regional relationship of the driving factors with LUCs at different stratifications. Finally, a spatial allocation of the land-use module, which projects a spatially explicit LUC. The SLUCS model was applied and tested in the Guizhou and Guangxi Karst Mountainous Region. Results validated the effectiveness of the model, and further demonstrated an improved spatial consistency with the reference, a higher accuracy assessment, and a better simulation performance in conversion areas than the traditional method. Three scenarios from 2015 to 2030 with different land-use priorities were designed and projected. Each scenario presented the same LUC trends, but with different magnitudes, including the rapid expansion of built-up land, the restoration of forest and water, and the loss of farmland and grassland. Priority of the socioeconomic development and ecological protection of the scenarios forecasted a sharper increase in the built-up land and in forests than the historical extrapolation scenario. The SLUCS model visually projected the LUC trajectory and competition between land uses, which suggests specific tradeoffs among management strategies to support sustainable land uses.

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The Control of Environmental Stratification on the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity

Cited by 26 publications

References 43 publications

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

Relationship between sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam's coastline

An Elevation-Based Stratification Model for Simulating Land Use Change

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