The contribution of Paris to limit global warming to 2 °C

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James A.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Hultman, Nathan; Alsalam, Jameel; Asrar, Ghassem; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Creason, Jared; Jeong, Minji; Kyle, Page; McFarland, James; Mundra, Anupriya; Patel, Pralit; Shi, Wenjing; McJeon, Haewon

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125002

Cited by 83 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…At the same time, other assessments 39,55-57 concluded that it might be possible to produce the required amount of bio-energy in a sustainable way (up to 300 EJ yr . This challenge is particularly relevant to policy, because limiting emissions in 2030 does not only increase the chances of attaining the 2 °C target, but also reduces the need to rely on unproven, potentially risky or controversial technologies in the future 16,40,59 .…”

Section: Post-2030 Implications Of Indcsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

Rogelj

Elzen

Höhne

et al. 2016

Nature

2,709

1,326

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-a new global agreement to combat climate change-was adopted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In preparation of this agreement, countries submitted national plans that spell out their intentions for addressing the climate change challenge after 2020 2 . These Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) address a range of issues, which can relate to avoiding, adapting or coping with climate change, among other things. Nevertheless, targets and actions for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are core components. At this point, the INDCs are not final and can be modified up until the time the Paris Agreement is ratified. However, for now they represent our best understanding of the climate actions countries intend to pursue after 2020.The overarching climate goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold "the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels" 1 . This climate goal represents the level of climate change that governments agree would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system, while ensuring sustainable food production and economic development 3,4 , and is the result of international discussions over multiple decades 5 . Limiting warming to any level implies that the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite 6 . From a geophysical perspective, global CO 2 emissions thus need to become net zero 7,8 . About two thirds of the available budget for keeping warming to below 2 °C have already been emitted [9][10][11] , and increasing trends in CO 2 emissions 12 indicate that global emissions urgently need to start to decline so as to not foreclose the possibility of holding warming to well below 2 °C (refs 13, 14). The window for limiting warming to below 1.5 °C with high probability and without temporarily exceeding that level already seems to have closed 15 . The Paris Agreement implicitly acknowledges these insights and aims to reach a global peak in GHG emissions as soon as possible together with achieving "a balance" between anthropogenic emissions and removals of GHGs in the second half of this century. Both targets are in principle consistent with the temperature objective of the Agreement 16,17 , but beg the broader question of whether current INDCs are already putting the world on a path towards achieving them.Besides the climate question, the first round of INDCs also raises many other issues. These include whether efforts are distributed equitably among countries; how much adaptation may be required given the current level of mitigation ambition; how 'intended' national proposals will be implemented; how they will be financed; and the extent to which the INDCs contribute to the achievement of other goals of the UNFCCC by building on institutions that can support adaptation to climate change, technology advancement, development path transformation, sustainable...

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Section: Post-2030 Implications Of Indcsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

Rogelj

Elzen

Höhne

et al. 2016

Nature

2,709

1,326

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The objective is to keep global warming well below these limits in order to avoid dangerous climate disruption with consequences that may be uncontrollable. Limiting global warming to 2 • C is a challenging goal and according to Iyer et al (2015) entails a dramatic transformation of the global energy system, that needs to be largely complete by 2040.…”

Section: Reference Levels Of the Climate Targetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paleoclimatological Context and Reference Level of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement Long-Term Temperature Limits

Lüning

Vahrenholt

2017

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…This statement has emphasized with grave concern the need for the international community to focus on limiting global mean temperatures to well below 2°C, which led to the recent climate change agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the parties (COP21) in Paris of December 2015 [25]. Countries participating in COP21 have been submitting their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) which specifies their emission reduction commitments through 2025 or 2030 [26]. India submitted their INDC on the first of October 2015 [27], where the following outlines their 8 major commitments for the period of 2021 to 2030 [2]: First, to promote a sustainable way of life centered on traditions and principles of preservation and moderation.…”

Section: India's Intended Nationally Determined Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%