The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

Leblanc, Florian; Bibas, Ruben; Mima, Silvana; Muratori, Matteo; Sakamoto, Shogo; Sano, Fuminori; Bauer, Nico; Daioglou, Vassilis; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gidden, Matthew; Kato, Etsushi; Rose, Steven K.; Tsutsui, Junichi; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Weyant, John P.; Wise, Marshall

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03245-3

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 69 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…In contrast, pathways resulting in higher biomass shares in primary energy (such as IMACLIM-R and IMAGE) show a preference for bio-based maritime fuels, especially synthetic liquids (e.g., bio-alcohols and Fischer-Tropsch hydrocarbons). However, models that rely on bio-based fuels to decarbonize transports always face a competition for feedstock in generating negative emissions with the power sector 49 . This largely explains the limit reached by low-carbon maritime fuels in IMACLIM-R scenarios.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Typically, they are designed to assess the implications of achieving climate objectives, such as limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 o C 9,50 . The six global models used in this study are COFFEE 51,52 , IMACLIM-R 49,53 , IMAGE 13,34 , PROMETHEUS 52,54 , TIAM-UCL 55,56 and WITCH 57,58 . COFFEE is a process-based IAM 41 that utilizes intertemporal linear programming optimization with perfect foresight to model global energy, agricultural, and land-use systems.…”

Section: Integrated Assessment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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International shipping in a world below 2oC

Müller-Casseres,

Leblanc,

Berg

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In recent years, the decarbonisation of international shipping has become an important policy goal. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for around 0.75 GtCO2/yr. Here, we perform the first multi-IAM analysis of international shipping, drawing on the results of six global models. Results indicate the need for decreasing emissions in the next decades, with reductions up to 88% in 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonisation of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes of conventional maritime fuels.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Integrated Assessment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

International shipping in a world below 2oC

Müller-Casseres,

Leblanc,

Berg

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…28 ). Like electricity, the transport sector plays a key part in reaching net-zero emissions 35 , and different routes exist to decarbonize it 36 , 37 . Figure 2 shows the relative importance of the model, climate target and scenario differences on projections of energy sources for the transport sector.…”

Section: Transport Energy Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Apart from detecting the dominant driver, the varying degrees of the three drivers provide a broader context: model disagreement, albeit dominant for many variables, is never explanatory for the full variable spread, and a non-negligible impact of climate targets can always be recognized (as is the case for, for example, CCS technologies and individual renewables). Although models tend to agree that bioenergy use expands from the current levels in mitigation scenarios, the supply and use of this resource differ considerably across models, particularly in the transport sector 36 , 50 . As highlighted in ref.…”

Section: Implications For Policy and Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spread in climate policy scenarios unravelled

Dekker,

Hof,

van den Berg

et al. 2023

Nature

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Analysis of climate policy scenarios has become an important tool for identifying mitigation strategies, as shown in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report1. The key outcomes of these scenarios differ substantially not only because of model and climate target differences but also because of different assumptions on behavioural, technological and socio-economic developments2–4. A comprehensive attribution of the spread in climate policy scenarios helps policymakers, stakeholders and scientists to cope with large uncertainties in this field. Here we attribute this spread to the underlying drivers using Sobol decomposition5, yielding the importance of each driver for scenario outcomes. As expected, the climate target explains most of the spread in greenhouse gas emissions, total and sectoral fossil fuel use, total renewable energy and total carbon capture and storage in electricity generation. Unexpectedly, model differences drive variation of most other scenario outcomes, for example, in individual renewable and carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy in demand sectors, reflecting intrinsic uncertainties about long-term developments and the range of possible mitigation strategies. Only a few scenario outcomes, such as hydrogen use, are driven by other scenario assumptions, reflecting the need for more scenario differentiation. This attribution analysis distinguishes areas of consensus as well as strong model dependency, providing a crucial step in correctly interpreting scenario results for robust decision-making.

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