The continued salience of religious voting in the United States, Germany, and Great Britain

Raymond, Christopher

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.10.001

Cited by 46 publications

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“…Evans 2000 The vast amount of cleavage studies attests these broad developments. However, the majority of studies do not distinguish between different mechanisms (exceptions are Lachat 2007a;Best 2011;Elff & Roßteutscher 2017;Goldberg 2017;Heath 2018), and even those few that do suffer from the same limitations as many other cleavage studies in that they focus on only one specific country (e.g., De Graaf et al 2001;Evans & Tilley 2012;Elff & Roßteutscher 2017;Goldberg 2017;Heath 2018); consider only one particular cleavage or cleavage group, such as workers (e.g., Clark et al 1993;Raymond 2011;Jansen et al 2013;Goldberg 2014;Heath 2018); or only analyse specific parties or merged (left versus right) party blocs (e.g., Franklin et al 1992;Elff 2007;Best 2011;Jansen et al 2013;Elff & Roßteutscher 2017). The aim of this article is to offer a more comprehensive analysis of all three underlying mechanisms of (declining) cleavage voting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of cleavage voting in four Western countries: Structural, behavioural or political dealignment?

Goldberg

2019

European J Political Res

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Since the heyday of cleavage voting in the 1960s and 1970s, the majority of studies presents evidence of a decline in cleavage voting-caused by either structural or behavioural dealignment. Structural dealignment denotes changes in group size responsible for a decrease in cleavage voting, whereas behavioural dealignment concerns weakening party-voter links over time. A third phenomenon posited in this article is the collective voting abstention of certain (social) groups, here referred to as 'political dealignment', which results in a new type of division of voting versus abstention. The purpose of this article is to examine the three underlying mechanisms for the decline in social class and religious cleavage voting across four Western countries (Great Britain, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United States) over the last 40-60 years using longitudinal post-election data. The results prove a strong presence of political dealignment and increasing turnout gaps regarding both the class and religious cleavage. Furthermore, whenever a decline in cleavage voting is present, it is mainly caused by changes in the social groups' behaviour and less by changing social structures in a country.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of cleavage voting in four Western countries: Structural, behavioural or political dealignment?

Goldberg

2019

European J Political Res

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“…Neben dem ‚neuen', von der Ablösungsthese postulierten religiösen Cleavage zwischen Religiösen und Nicht-Religiösen scheinen hier auch die ‚alten' konfessionellen Konfliktlinien Bestand zu haben (Roßteutscher 2012;Wolf 1996). Debatten über die abnehmende Relevanz sozialstruktureller Merkmale für politisches Verhalten sowie Modernisierungs-und Säkularisierungsthesen zum Trotz, konnte auch für die jüngsten Wahlen in Deutschland nachgewiesen werden, dass Religionszugehörigkeit das Wahlverhalten beeinflusst: Katholiken haben nach wie vor eine höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit, die Unionsparteien zu wählen, als alle anderen (Arzheimer u. Schoen 2007;Brooks et al 2004;Debus 2010; Elff u. Roßteutscher 2011; Jagodzinski u. Quandt 2000;Jung et al 2010; Klein u. Pötschke 2000;Lachat 2007;Minkenberg 2010; Pappi u. Brandenburg 2010;Raymond 2011;Roßteutscher 2007Roßteutscher , 2012Schoen 2009; van der Brug et al 2009;Weßels 2011).Während der Zusammenhang zwischen Konfession und Wahlentscheidung auf Individualebene hinreichend untersucht wurde, wissen wir nur sehr wenig über die sozialen Prozesse, welche diese Beziehung aufrechterhalten oder Religion überhaupt erst politisch salient werden lassen (Brettschneider et al 2002). Ein sozialstrukturelles Merkmal wie die Konfessionszugehörigkeit ist per se von geringer politischer Relevanz.…”

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Jenseits von Schwerkraft und Höllenfeuer. Nicht-lineare Kontexteffekte auf den Zusammenhang von religiöser Gruppenzugehörigkeit und individuellem Wahlverhalten bei fünf Bundestagswahlen

Ackermann¹,

Traunmüller²

2014

PVS

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This article investigates the moderating effect of social context on the relationship between religion and vote choice. Whereas theories of electoral research and the sociology of religion assume a linear contextual effect, we develop a new theoretical argument that predicts a non-linear effect. The results of logistic multilevel analyses confirm this theory for the Catholic milieu: The effect of catholic denomination on voting for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) first increases with the share of Catholics in the context and decreases when they are in the clear majority. This finding -which contradicts former studies -holds for all federal elections under consideration (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009), withstands several robustness tests and provides important evidence for the perpetuation of the traditional Catholic voting norm through group processes.Keywords: Cleavage-voting, religion, contextual effects, non-linear, federal elections Schlagwörter: Cleavage-Voting, Religion, Kontexteffekte, Nicht-Linearität, Bundestagswahlen Einleitung 1Dass Religion einen wahlentscheidenden Faktor darstellen kann, wird von vielen politischen Beobachtern gewürdigt. Die US-amerikanische Debatte dreht sich dabei vor allem um die sogenannten ‚culture wars', in denen sich religiöse und säku-lare Gruppen in politischen Streitfragen wie Abtreibung, Rechte für Homosexuel- 34PVS, 55. Jg., 1/2014 le oder Familienwerte gegenüberstehen und welche in einem ausgeprägten ‚god gap' bei den jüngeren Präsidentschaftswahlen mündeten (Campbell 2007;Fiorina 2005;Gelman et al. 2008;Green 2010;Hunter 1991; Layman u. Green 2006). In Europa widmet sich ein wiedererwachtes Interesse der Stabilität und dem Wandel traditioneller religiöser Konfliktlinien, welche in der Vergangenheit die Parteienlandschaft vieler europäischer Staaten geprägt haben und das Wahlverhalten breiter Bevölkerungsschichten nach wie vor entscheidend strukturieren (Brooks et al. 2004;Elff 2007; Essmer u. Pettersson 2007;Knutsen 2004;Minkenberg 2010). Neben dem ‚neuen', von der Ablösungsthese postulierten religiösen Cleavage zwischen Religiösen und Nicht-Religiösen scheinen hier auch die ‚alten' konfessionellen Konfliktlinien Bestand zu haben (Roßteutscher 2012;Wolf 1996). Debatten über die abnehmende Relevanz sozialstruktureller Merkmale für politisches Verhalten sowie Modernisierungs-und Säkularisierungsthesen zum Trotz, konnte auch für die jüngsten Wahlen in Deutschland nachgewiesen werden, dass Religionszugehörigkeit das Wahlverhalten beeinflusst: Katholiken haben nach wie vor eine höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit, die Unionsparteien zu wählen, als alle anderen (Arzheimer u. Schoen 2007;Brooks et al. 2004;Debus 2010; Elff u. Roßteutscher 2011; Jagodzinski u. Quandt 2000;Jung et al. 2010; Klein u. Pötschke 2000;Lachat 2007;Minkenberg 2010; Pappi u. Brandenburg 2010;Raymond 2011;Roßteutscher 2007Roßteutscher , 2012Schoen 2009; van der Brug et al. 2009;Weßels 2011).Während der Zusammenhang zwischen Konfession ...

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“…13 Seawright 2000;Seawright and Curtice 1995. 14 Raymond 2011. Britain is an important test case. If religious cleavages are alive and well in Britain, then this suggests that the religious cleavage can survive in even the most unpromising of circumstances.…”

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confidence: 99%

‘We Don't Do God’? Religion and Party Choice in Britain

Tilley¹

2014

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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This article shows that religion has been consistently important in predicting voters' party choices in Britain over time. The relationship between religion and party preference is not primarily due to the social make-up of different religious groups, nor to ideological differences between religious groups, whether in terms of social conservatism, economic leftism or national identity. Instead, particular denominations are associated with parties that represented those denominational groups in the early twentieth century when social cleavages were 'frozen' within the system. The main mechanism underpinning these divisions is parental transmission of party affiliations within denominations. These findings have important implications for how we understand both the persistence of social cleavages and the precise mechanisms that maintain social cleavages.In 2003 Prime Minister Tony Blair's director of strategy and communications, Alistair Campbell, famously interrupted a interview with the prime minister to tell the journalist that 'We don't do God'. That succinctly summarizes the role of religion in elite political discourse in Britain over the last fifty years. Very few politicians refer to religion and very few, with the ironic exception of Tony Blair, are overtly religious. This is perhaps not surprising as Britain is a very secular country and the role of religion in post-war politics has generally been perceived as weak. Indeed Britain was typically thought of as the archetypal example of a 'one social cleavage' society, with a dominant class cleavage splitting voters and splitting parties. Despite this class cleavage having declined enormously, there is little work that looks at the other important 'frozen' cleavages that Lipset and Rokkan identified.1 In this article I show that not only is the religious cleavage of important historical interest in Britain, but it is also of current importance in shaping people's party choices. Moreover, I test the mechanisms behind this religious cleavage and show that it is not a proxy for other social cleavages, such as class or national identity, nor is it based on religiosity and its impact on people's ideology. Rather, religion matters today in British politics much as it did in the distant past: religious denominations have long-standing associations with parties and these links are passed down from parents to children. These findings have wide-ranging implications for electoral politics and the way in which we view both the underlying mechanisms that maintain cleavage politics and the persistence of those political cleavages over time.THE RELIGIOUS CLEAVAGE OVER TIME In many European countries, religion has been seen as the central social cleavage around which politics has been organized. Although Lipset and Rokkan's original article * Jesus College, University of Oxford (email: james.tilley@politics.ox.ac.uk). Online appendices are available at http://dx.doi.org

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The continued salience of religious voting in the United States, Germany, and Great Britain

Cited by 46 publications

References 38 publications

The evolution of cleavage voting in four Western countries: Structural, behavioural or political dealignment?

The evolution of cleavage voting in four Western countries: Structural, behavioural or political dealignment?

Jenseits von Schwerkraft und Höllenfeuer. Nicht-lineare Kontexteffekte auf den Zusammenhang von religiöser Gruppenzugehörigkeit und individuellem Wahlverhalten bei fünf Bundestagswahlen

‘We Don't Do God’? Religion and Party Choice in Britain

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