The Contextual Underpinnings of Voting Patterns for Black Statewide Candidates

Abstract

African American candidates have usually struggled to win statewide elections, but they often perform relatively well in some localities, while doing badly in others. Drawing on unique time-series cross-section data collected in the State of Illinois, we examine how racial and socioeconomic contexts determine support for black candidates in statewide elections. We show that African American candidates tend to do better in counties that are both racially diverse and highly educated, as well as communities that have witnessed a growing inflow of highly educated residents. Only in communities where a high level of racial diversity interacts with highly educated environment, do residents seem to become more willing to embrace black statewide candidates. Our findings may help shed light on the enduring question of what the future of a diversifying society holds.

Who is Empowering Who

“…However, this is probably more likely to occur among liberal and Democratic Whites than it is among conservative and Republican Whites who tend to have lower evaluations of Obama than previous Democratic presidents (Abrajano & Burnett, 2012). While Blacks still disproportionately campaign in areas that are majority Black (see Shah, 2014), it is possible that future researchers will be able to examine the impact of Black representation for a greater number of Blacks both within and outside of majority-minority districts as attitudes toward African American candidates change and the racial/ethnic make-up of the electorate grows friendlier to candidates from underrepresented groups (Lee, Boeckelman, & Day, 2013).…”