The Context of Marriage and Crime: Gender, the Propensity to Marry, and Offending in Early Adulthood*

Abstract

Marriage is central to theoretical debates over stability and change in criminal offending over the life course. Yet, unlike other social ties such as employment, marriage is distinct in that it cannot be randomly assigned in survey research to more definitively assess causal effects of marriage on offending. As a result, key questions remain as to whether different individual propensities toward marriage shape its salience as a deterrent institution. Building on these issues, the current research has three objectives. First, we use a propensity score matching approach to estimate causal effects of marriage on crime in early adulthood. Second, we assess sex differences in the effects of marriage on offending. Although both marriage and offending are highly gendered phenomena, prior work typically focuses on males. Third, we examine whether one's propensity to marry conditions the deterrent capacity of marriage. Results show that marriage suppresses offending for males, even when accounting for their likelihood to marry. Furthermore, males who are least likely to marry seem to benefit most from this institution. The influence of marriage on crime is less robust for females, where marriage reduces crime only for those with moderate propensities to marry. We discuss these findings in the context of recent debates concerning gender, criminal offending, and the life course.

Desistance from Offending in the Twenty-First Century

“…To address this causal question, research has adopted increasingly sophisticated analyses including within-individual analyses (Osgood 2009), propensity score matching (King et al 2007), counterfactual models , and, most recently, a Markovian framework (Loughran et al 2017). This work provides strong evidence that the influence of marriage and work has a causal component.…”

Women Coming Home: Long‐Term Patterns of Recidivism

“…Marriage had no deterrent effect for women with low capital (e.g., little educational attainment, inconsistent work histories, and prior criminality) in the marriage pool. King, Massoglia, and Macmillan (2007) hypothesize that women with low probabilities for marriage may have less "conventionalizing potential"; to attract a suitable mate (p. 57). In fact, there is some evidence that marriage and intimate relationships may enhance opportunities for criminality through "negative assortative mating"; (Becker, 1981) or partnering with a mate with greater involvement in criminal behavior (see also Alarid, Burton, & Cullen, 2000;Simons et al, 2002).…”

Partners in crime? - De invloed van crimineel gedrag op huwelijkskansen en partnerselectie

“…Vaak wordt verondersteld dat de afname in crimineel gedrag wordt veroorzaakt door de sociale binding die ontstaat door het huwelijk: partners houden elkaar in de gaten, controleren elkaars gedrag en willen hun huwelijk niet op het spel zetten door het plegen van delicten (Laub & Sampson, 2003). Recente studies ondersteunen deze gedachte en laten zien dat het huwelijk -vooral bij mannen -voor een afname in crimineel gedrag kan zorgen (Blokland & Nieuwbeerta, 2005;King, Massoglia & MacMillan, 2007;Sampson, Laub & Wimer, 2006).…”

“…Een groot aantal eerdere studies hebben laten zien dat het huwelijk voor een afname in crimineel gedrag kan zorgen (zie bijvoorbeeld Blokland & Nieuwbeerta, 2005;King et al, 2007;Sampson et al, 2006). Daarom is het van even groot belang om de factoren te achterhalen die de huwelijkskansen en partnerkeuzes van delinquenten beïnvloeden.…”