The construction and visualization of the transmission networks for COVID-19: A potential solution for contact tracing and assessments of epidemics

Abstract

The WHO described coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic due to the speed and scale of its transmission. Without effective interventions, the rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 cases would greatly increase the burden of clinical treatments. Identifying the transmission sources and pathways is of vital importance to block transmission and allocate limited public health resources. According to the relationships among cases, we constructed disease transmission network graphs for the COVID-19 epidemic through a visualization technique based on individual reports of epidemiological data. We proposed an analysis strategy of the transmission network with the epidemiological data in Tianjin and Chengdu. The transmission networks showed different transmission characteristics. In Tianjin, an imported case can produce an average of 2.9 secondary infections and ultimately produce up to 4 generations of infections, with a maximum of 6 cases generated before being identified. In Chengdu, 45 noninformative cases and 24 cases with vague exposure information made it difficult to provide accurate information by the transmission network. The proposed analysis framework of visualized transmission networks can trace the transmission source and contacts, assess the current situation of transmission and prevention, and provide evidence for the global response and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Comparative Study of Challenges and Strategic Management: Lessons Learned from SARS, MERS, HIV & Ebola Outbreaks

“…The other model, "The continuous-time Markovian epidemic on a network," differs from the discrete model in taking the latent period between acquiring infections and becoming infectious. It also dynamically covers a time range, without affecting the final size or the last person to get infected [98] [99]. It also discusses the strategic inclusion of individuals with "global contacts" who are at higher risk of spreading infection (super spreaders).…”