The complex relationship between climate and sugar maple health: Climate change implications in Vermont for a key northern hardwood species

Oswald, Evan M.; Pontius, Jennifer; Rayback, Shelly A.; Schaberg, Paul G.; Wilmot, Sandra; Dupigny‐Giroux, Lesley‐Ann

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2018.04.014

Cited by 25 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Weather for the study site from 1978-2011 was extracted from gridded climate data [33,34]. Climate indices were created from temperature and precipitation variables following Oswald et al [19]. Indices included annual precipitation and mean annual temperature; mean spring (March-May) maximum temperature, sum of spring precipitation, mean summer (June-August) maximum temperature, sum of summer precipitation, spring warm-up (number of March and April days with three-day mean temperature >5 • C), annual three-day maximum temperature, number of days per year with maximum temperature >31 • C, growing degree-days between 1 March and 30 September based on a 4 • C threshold, and thaws (number of days in January and February with mean temperature >0 • C).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In upper Midwest USA, sugar maple is more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation [18]. Sugar maple stress in Vermont is correlated with increased temperatures in April and October, and its growth in Vermont is positively correlated with increased annual precipitation [19], in contrast to the findings of Canham et al [14]. In summary, in eastern USA, hemlock growth increases with higher temperature and precipitation, yellow birch growth decreases with increased temperature, and sugar maple growth may increase or decrease in response to elevated temperature and precipitation.…”

Section: Response To Competition and Climate In Northern Hardwood Formentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sugar maple performance with respect to climate factors is important for maple sugar and tourism industries; sugar maple habitat in northeastern USA is projected to contract by as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century under continued high emissions of greenhouse gases [24]. Higher minimum air temperatures in spring and fall are associated with more sugar maple stress in Vermont [19], but Canham and Murphy [14] found slightly faster growth in locations with warmer mean annual temperatures in eastern USA. At our study site in east-central New York, growth was slower in years with warmer winters and wetter summers; both these climatic factors are projected to increase in the region under continued greenhouse warming, which augurs poorly for this species [22].…”

Section: Climate and Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Competition, Climate, and Size Effects on Radial Growth in an Old-Growth Hemlock Forest

Bigelow

Runkle

Oswald

2019

Forests

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Research Highlights: We applied neighborhood and dendro-ecological methods in a stand with a 33-year record of forest dynamics, finding that growth will decrease for several species under predicted climate trends. Background and Objectives: Conventional tree-ring analysis removes the influence of competition and size on growth, precluding assessment of the relative influence of these factors. An old-growth eastern hemlock forest in east–central New York was mapped in 1978 and was measured at eight-year intervals since then. Our objective was to use these data to examine the influence of climate, neighborhood, and tree size on radial growth. Materials and Methods: We evaluated an array of climatic indices to find which ones had the strongest influence on radial growth from increment cores of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis L.), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). We used the strongest climatic indices in combination with neighborhood and target-tree size information to create growth models for the three tree species. Results: Size accounted for 2% to 21% of observed growth; the shade-tolerant sugar maple and eastern hemlock grew fastest when large, but the mid-tolerant yellow birch grew fastest when small. Competition accounted for 9% to 21% of growth; conifers had a weaker competitive effect than deciduous trees, and eastern hemlock was less sensitive to competition than sugar maple and yellow birch. Climate accounted for only 2% of growth variation; eastern hemlock showed a positive response to warming climate trends, but yellow birch and sugar maple showed negative responses. Conclusions: Predicted climate trends are likely to result in decreased growth of sugar maple and yellow birch, and the sensitivity of these species to competition suggests the effect will be exacerbated when they grow in crowded conditions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Response To Competition and Climate In Northern Hardwood Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate and Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Competition, Climate, and Size Effects on Radial Growth in an Old-Growth Hemlock Forest

Bigelow

Runkle

Oswald

2019

Forests

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“…The FForGeoVDS tool relies on empirical models designed to capture specific ecosystem structure and function that can be used as a proxy for management outcomes. Here we incorporate five disparate models: tree species distribution (sugar maple and hemlock percent basal area maps [17]), forest fragmentation risk [18], sugar maple canopy condition [19], and eastern hemlock susceptibility to hemlock wooly adelgid [20]. For all input models included in any decision support tool, it is critical to provide easily accessible information about model development and validation to add credibility to the tool and allow stakeholders to assess the reliability of the resulting products.…”

Section: Input Empirical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study compared a suite of climate metrics to field assessments of sugar maple canopy condition across Vermont [19]. Five climate metrics were significantly related to sugar maple decline.…”

Section: Sugar Maple Stress Index Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking Science and Management in a Geospatial, Multi- Criteria Decision Support Tool

Pontius¹,

Duncan²

2018

New Perspectives in Forest Science

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Land managers are often faced with balancing management activities to accomplish a diversity of objectives in complex, dynamic ecosystems. In this chapter, we present a multi-criteria decision support tool (the Future Forests Geo-Visualization Decision Support (FForGeoVDS)) designed to inform management decisions by capturing information on how climate change may impact the structure and function of forested ecosystems and how that impact varies across the landscape. This interactive tool integrates spatial outputs from various empirical models in a structured decision framework that allows users to customize weights for multiple management objectives and visualize suitability outcomes across the landscape. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate customized objective weightings designed to: (1) identify key parcels for sugarbush (Acer saccharum) conservation, (2) target state lands that may serve as hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) refugia, and (3) examine how climate change may impact forests under current and future climate scenarios. These case studies exemplify the value of considering multiple objectives in a flexible structure to best match stakeholder needs and demonstrate an important step toward using science to inform management and policy decisions.

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An accumulation of climatic stress events has led to years of reduced growth for sugar maple in southern Quebec, Canada

2020

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Understanding the influence of climatic variation on forest dynamics is of great ecological and economic interest, and is essential to prescribe silvicultural interventions that will facilitate ecosystem acclimation to global change. However, the retrospective identification of climatic events responsible for the inter‐annual variation of tree growth is challenging, notably because both their duration and their subsequent effects can be highly variable in time. In this study, we aimed to (1) quantify empirically the effect of climatic stress events on the short‐ and long‐term growth dynamics of sugar maple trees; (2) compare the effects of different types of climatic events, that is, drought and thaw–freeze; and (3) compare the effects of climatic stress events to those of traditional monthly level climate metrics. To achieve this, we paired cross‐dated tree‐ring series to monthly and daily‐level climate metrics over more than 50 yr in two distinct regions of southern Quebec. While the analysis from monthly level metrics first suggested a weak and non‐stationary relationship between climatic conditions and tree growth, the analysis from daily‐level metrics showed that climatic stress events, and more particularly thaw–freeze events, were strongly related to the growth of sugar maple trees. Our results suggest that the synergic influence of cumulative climatic stress events, which was exacerbated by insect outbreaks during the early 1980s, induced an important shift in the growth dynamics of sugar maple and in its response to variation in climatic conditions. These results highlight the potential negative impact of global climate change on our capacity to predict stand productivity accurately, especially if climate‐sensitive growth models are based on projections of future monthly metrics. Because adverse climatic events are expected to increase both in frequency and in severity over the next decades, a general decrease in the growth rate of sugar maple is apprehended in southern Quebec.

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The complex relationship between climate and sugar maple health: Climate change implications in Vermont for a key northern hardwood species

Cited by 25 publications

References 39 publications

Competition, Climate, and Size Effects on Radial Growth in an Old-Growth Hemlock Forest

Competition, Climate, and Size Effects on Radial Growth in an Old-Growth Hemlock Forest

Linking Science and Management in a Geospatial, Multi- Criteria Decision Support Tool

An accumulation of climatic stress events has led to years of reduced growth for sugar maple in southern Quebec, Canada

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