The complex consequences of volcanic warnings: Trust, risk perception and experiences of businesses near Mount Zao following the 2015 unrest period

Donovan, Amy; Suppasri, Anawat; Kuri, Miwa; Torayashiki, Tetsuya

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.023

Cited by 13 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Again, there is an opportunity here for international collaboration between neighbouring nationstates to avoid contradictory or controversial cases in which different decisions are made across a border (as occurred at Nabro, for example). This also requires social scientific input, because alert protocols are fundamentally social systems, both in how they are designed and implemented and in their impacts Donovan et al 2017;Eiser et al 2015;Fearnley and Beaven 2018). Different systems across a border might be justified, for example, if there is significant cultural divergence but would need to be communicated and translated to the appropriate neighbours.…”

Section: Warning Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanoes on borders: a scientific and (geo)political challenge

Donovan

Oppenheimer

2019

Bull Volcanol

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While the scientific community readily collaborates across international borders, the boundaries of administrative unitsparticularly the nation-state-can be critical in defining the availability of scientific resources, the management of crises and the use of land. Managing border eruptions can be particularly challenging when international relations between the relevant nation-states are strained or complex or when political agendas become involved. Given that over 700 volcanoes lie within 100 km of an international border, and over 1300 are within 250 km, the potential for cross-border eruption impacts is significant. This paper aims to provide an overview of the topic. It presents results from a global study of volcanoes on or near borders and uses five case studies to highlight key issues that arise in the management of risk at such volcanoes. While volcano monitoring provides critical support for hazard assessment and decision-making, its availability depends on the policies of particular governments and institutions. Furthermore, the complexity and diversity of volcanic hazards, activity and impacts can exacerbate existing cross-border inequalities in vulnerabilities, in scientific resources, in disaster management and mitigation capacity and indeed public awareness. We suggest that pre-crisis planning and communication, resource sharing and international agreements can help to mitigate the challenges of cross-border eruptions.

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Section: Warning Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanoes on borders: a scientific and (geo)political challenge

Donovan

Oppenheimer

2019

Bull Volcanol

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“…see review in Kellens et al (2013)). Some studies have found that false alarms can be problematic in eroding trust (Donovan et al, 2017;Fakhruddin et al, 2015), but that they are manageable with good communication strategies before the crisis, whilst…”

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confidence: 99%

Communicating Complex Forecasts for Enhanced Early Warning in Nepal

Budimir

Donovan

Brown

et al. 2019

Preprint

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Early warning systems have the potential to save lives and improve resilience. Simple early warning systems rely on real-time data and deterministic models to generate evacuation warnings; these simple deterministic models enable life-saving action, but provide limited lead time for resilience-building early action. More complex early warning systems supported by forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts, can provide additional lead time for preparation. However, barriers and challenges remain in disseminating and communicating these more complex warnings to community members and individuals at risk. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination and decision making for early action. The research reviewed the availability and utilisation of complex forecasts in Nepal, their integration into dissemination (Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) bulletins and SMS warnings), and decision support tools (Common Alerting Protocols and Standard Operating Procedures), considering their impact on improving early action to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities to flooding.</p>

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Political Geology: An Introduction

Bobbette

Donovan

2018

Political Geology

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The complex consequences of volcanic warnings: Trust, risk perception and experiences of businesses near Mount Zao following the 2015 unrest period

Cited by 13 publications

References 48 publications

Volcanoes on borders: a scientific and (geo)political challenge

Volcanoes on borders: a scientific and (geo)political challenge

Communicating Complex Forecasts for Enhanced Early Warning in Nepal

Political Geology: An Introduction

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