The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation

Bolhuis, Marijn; Cramer, Judd N.; Summers, Lawrence H.

doi:10.3386/w29795

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…The high inflation that followed the COVID‐19 pandemic has raised many questions about the underlying forces at work. Although disruptions to complex global supply chains and high food and energy prices have played a role, others argue that overly stimulative fiscal and monetary policy were mainly responsible (e.g., Blanchard et al, 2022; Bolhuis et al, 2022). Regardless, it is clear that most forecasts made in 2020 and 2021 underpredicted inflation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using deep (machine) learning to forecast US inflation in the COVID‐19 era

Stoneman,

Duca

2024

Journal of Forecasting

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The 2021–2022 surge in US inflation was unanticipated by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and other macroeconomists and institutions. This study assesses whether nascent deep learning frameworks and methods more accurately project recent core personal consumption expenditures inflation. We create a recurrent neural network (RNN) to forecast long‐term inflation, and after training on 60 years of quarterly data, the model outperforms the SPF and projects a spike in inflation similar to that of recent years. We compare the model's performance with and without COVID‐19–specific data and discuss some implications of our findings for economic forecasting in global crises.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using deep (machine) learning to forecast US inflation in the COVID‐19 era

Stoneman,

Duca

2024

Journal of Forecasting

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“…This prediction translates into an additional 1.1pp increase in overall CPI inflation for both 2022 and 2023" (p. 1). See alsoBolhuis et al (2022).8 See the figure from Furman (2022c). 9 For more on the impact of the chip shortage on the auto industry, see JPMorgan (2022).Journal of Policy Analysis andManagement DOI: 10.1002/pam Published on behalf of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management…”

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confidence: 99%