The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities

Abstract

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP's goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and to improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at the global scale, and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new, and sometimes surprising, insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.

Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand

“…In other fields, this has led to spurious identification of precursors, e.g., accelerating moment release prior to large earthquakes 42 . Cross-validation constrains these biases, however the gold standard for forecasting is evaluation of a frozen model on future data 43 .…”

Calibrating and testing of the forecasts of seismic hazard for planned mining sequences

“…Various metrics were developed in crustal seismology to test the forecasts of tectonic earthquakes. Some of them are used on a routine basis (Schorlemmer et al 2018). This paper suggests the adoption of one of these metrics -area skill score -for testing the spatial forecasts of seismic hazard in mines.…”

Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes with kernel functions

“…It has been adopted by many research institutions or governmental agencies in the United States, Switzerland, Italy, New Zealand, Japan, China, and so on. (Schorlemmer et al 2018). The ETAS model is now accepted as the standard model for describing earthquake clusters (e.g., Schorlemmer et al 2018;Huang et al 2016).…”

“…(Schorlemmer et al 2018). The ETAS model is now accepted as the standard model for describing earthquake clusters (e.g., Schorlemmer et al 2018;Huang et al 2016). Such a model is also used in crime data analysis (see, e.g., Mohler et al 2011) and in economics, where studies show that the interaction between prices has epidemic features (e.g., Bacry and Muzy 2014).…”