The closed carbon cycle in a managed, stable Anthropocene

Abstract

The striking influence humans are exerting on their environment will likely result in the stabilization of a new climatic equilibrium of the Anthropocene, possibly without historical precedent. Many conceivable outcomes would reshape the planet’s biodiversity. If the Earth-human interaction is to endure in its current state, which still shares characteristics with the Holocene, one necessary development is that humans close the various biogeochemical cycles (C, N, P, K, etc) they have fundamentally altered (i.g. Haber-Bosch). Many of the technologies required to close the chemical cycles, such as the emissions-free production of methanol from industrial exhaust, already exist. Historical examples show, however, that deployment of technology can lag behind innovation resulting in an implementation gap that hinders our ability to mitigate climate change. However, assuming we close this gap, biogeochemical cycles can act as a gage for a “successful” Anthropocene in which mitigation strategies stave off much of what will otherwise become widespread forced adaption to a new, possibly hostile climate. Closed chemical cycles supporting human consumption can be causally linked to human action and precisely marked in time; they will leave an indelible global stratigraphic record, namely in that human influence decreases. Such a development would be a sign that humans had achieved a managed, stable (or at least steady) state within acceptable planetary boundaries of the Earth-human system. This article focuses on closing the carbon cycle over the following decades and proposes, as a measure of progress, the flattening of the Suess effect, a well-known indicator of human impact.