The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China

Abstract

To provide scientific support for planning maize production and designing countermeasures against the effects of climate change on the national maize crop, we analyzed the climatic suitability for cultivating maize across China. These analyses were based on annual climate indices at the Chinese national level; these indices influence the geographical distribution of maize cultivation. The annual climate indices, together with geographical information on the current cultivation sites of maize, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the ArcGIS spatial analysis technique were used to analyze and predict maize distribution. The results show that the MaxEnt model can be used to study the climatic suitability for maize cultivation. The eight key climatic factors affecting maize cultivation areas were the frost-free period, annual average temperature, ≥0°C accumulated temperature, ≥10°C accumulated temperature continuous days, ≥10°C accumulated temperature, annual precipitation, warmest month average temperature, and humidity index. We classified climatic zones in terms of their suitability for maize cultivation, based on the existence probability determined using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, climatic thresholds for a potential maize cultivation zone were determined based on the relationship between the dominant climatic factors and the potential maize cultivation area. The results indicated that the importance and thresholds of main climate controls differ for different maize species and maturities, and their specific climatic suitability should be studied further to identify the best cultivation zones. The MaxEnt model is a useful tool to study climatic suitability for maize cultivation. maize, planting distribution, dominant climatic factor, climatic suitability, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model Citation:He Q J, Zhou G S. The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China.

An Identification Method for Spring Maize in Northeast China Based on Spectral and Phenological Features

“…Accurate data about the spatial distribution and planting area of maize is of great significance for crop yield estimation, agricultural production management, agricultural policy-making and food security under climate change [2][3][4][5]. The field survey is a traditional way to investigate crop distribution, but it is unable to meet the needs of modern crop investigation for a precise, comprehensive and efficient development aim [6].…”

Changes in Grain Production and the Optimal Spatial Allocation of Water Resources in China

“…As a dry farming crop, corn has currently replaced water-demanding rice and become the chief crop either in sown area or in output. The most suitable corn cultivation in China is concentrated along a long belt from northeast to southwest (Corn Belt) due to appropriate climate resources (He and Zhou 2012). With more reliance on expanding corn areas, most northern basins show more area effect than yield effect ( Table 3).…”

Impacts of Climate Change on Growth Period and Planting Boundaries of Spring Wheat in China Under RCP4.5 Scenario

“…Therefore, understanding the influence and adaption mechanism of global climate change on agricultural production has great scientific value and practical significance, especially in China where agriculture plays a dominant role (Jin, et al, 1994;Wang, 1997;Zeng, et al, 2008;Hou, 2014). The literature about the impacts of climate change on agricultural production uses three main research methods (Li and Chen, 1999;Sun, et al, 2007), namely field observation experiment (Ziska, et al, 1991;Bowes, 1993;Hileman, et al, 1994;Hunsaker, et al, 1994;Kim, et al, 1996;Hunsaker, et al, 2000;Herrick and Thomas, 2001;Li, et al, 2003), historically analogical method (Han, et al, 2004), and numerical simulation and prediction method (Jin, et al, 1994;Duan and Niu, 2007;Cong, et al, 2008;Li, et al, 2008;Cong, et al, 2010;Tu, et al, 2010;Zhao, et al, 2010;Yang, et al, 2011a;He and Zhou, 2012;Wang, et al, 2012;Zhu, et al, 2012;Hu and Liu, 2013;. The literature about the impacts of climate change on agricultural production uses three main research methods (Li and Chen, 1999;Sun, et al, 2007), namely field observation experiment (Ziska, et al, 1991;Bowes, 1993;Hileman, et al, 1994;Hunsaker, et al, 1994;Kim, et al, 1996;Hunsaker, et al, 2000;…”

“…The literature about the impacts of climate change on agricultural production uses three main research methods (Li and Chen, 1999;Sun, et al, 2007), namely field observation experiment (Ziska, et al, 1991;Bowes, 1993;Hileman, et al, 1994;Hunsaker, et al, 1994;Kim, et al, 1996;Hunsaker, et al, 2000;Herrick and Thomas, 2001;Li, et al, 2003), historically analogical method (Han, et al, 2004), and numerical simulation and prediction method (Jin, et al, 1994;Duan and Niu, 2007;Cong, et al, 2008;Li, et al, 2008;Cong, et al, 2010;Tu, et al, 2010;Zhao, et al, 2010;Yang, et al, 2011a;He and Zhou, 2012;Wang, et al, 2012;Zhu, et al, 2012;Hu and Liu, 2013;. As for long time sequence observations, there are several studies on the impacts of climate change on growth period (Duan and Niu, 2007;Li, et al, 2008;Yang, et al, 2011a;, planting layout (Wang, et al, 2012;, climate suitability (He and Zhou, 2012;Zhu, et al, 2012) and yield etc, which can help us understand the impact of climate change on crops in the past. The unified assumption is only suitable for small scale, otherwise, the scenario will violate the basic law of regional diversity (Cong, et al, 2008).…”