The climatic effect of co2: A different view

Ellsaesser, Hugh W.

doi:10.1016/0004-6981(84)90118-5

Cited by 27 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…Climate model predictions generally assume that an increase in CO 2 triggers the (global) warming effect. Yet this fundamental assumption is questioned by Ellsaesser (1984) and Shaw and Stroup (1990), among others, when they assert that the warming usually began before one could expect to see an effect from CO 2 . They also assert that, even if the underlying assumption is the case, a systematic acceleration in the rate of warming should have been observed, but this has not happened (Gardner 1993).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Climate Change: Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Series at Selected Canadian Sites

Clark

Yiridoe

Burns

et al. 2000

Canadian J Agri Economics

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Global climate change does not necessarily imply that temperature or precipitation is increasing at specific locations. The hypothesis of increasing temperature and precipitation trends associated with global climate change is tested using actual annual temperature and precipitation data for nine selected weather stations, spatially distributed across Canada. Vogelsang's (1998) partial sum and Woodward et al's (1997) bootstrap methods are used for testing for trend. Both methods suggest no warming in the Canadian temperature series except for Toronto, Ontario, which had significant increase over time, along with Moncton, New Brunswick, and Indian Head, Saskatchewan, which had marginal increases. There is no evidence of increasing trend in precipitation except for Moncton, New Brunswick, which had a significantly increasing trend. Thus, public policies designed to address the regional effects of climate change need to be adapted for a particular ecological zone, based on knowledge of the climate trends for that region, rather than on general global climate change patterns. Les changements climatiques à l'échelle planétaire ne signifient pas nécessairement que la température et les précipitations sont en augmentation dans des emplacements donnés. Nous avons testé I'hypothèse d'une assoviation de la tendance à la hausse de la température et des précipitations avec les changements climatiques planétaires à partir des données réelles de température et de précipitations obtenues à 9 stations d'observation climatique réparties dans les diverses régions du Canada. Nous utilisons, pour cefaire, la méthode des sommes partielles de Vogelsang (1998) et celle de rééchantillonnage bootstrap de Woodward et al (1997). Les deux méthodes ne révèlent aucun réchauffement de la température dans les séries chronologiques, sauf pour Toronto, en Ontario, où l'on constate une hausse significative en fonction du temps, ainsi que pour Moncton au Nouveau‐Brunswick et Indian Head en Saskatchewan qui marquent de très légères augmentations. Rien n'indique une tendance à la hausse des précipitations, sauf à Moncton où se dessine une tendance significative dans ce sens. Les programmes publics destinés à faire face aux effets régionaux du changement climatique doivent donc être adaptés à chaque zone écologique particulière, à partir d”observations faites dans la région même, plutôt que de la configuration du changement climatique à l'échelle planétaire.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Climate Change: Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Series at Selected Canadian Sites

Clark

Yiridoe

Burns

et al. 2000

Canadian J Agri Economics

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“…A fundamental problem in climate research is vapour as a climate stabilizer, arguing that subsidence can influence this in such a way that it acts as that of explaining how the Earth's climate remains stable on very long time scales. Positive feedback a negative feedback on tropical SST perturbations (Ellsaesser, 1984;Lindzen, 1990a; Pierrehumbert, mechanisms such as the ice-albedo feedback and the lower tropospheric water vapour/infrared radi-1995). This theory has also been contested and remains controversial.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamical stabilizer in the climate system: a mechanism suggested by a simple model

Bates

1999

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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A simple zonally averaged hemispheric model of the climate system is constructed, based on energy equations for two ocean basins separated at 30°latitude with the surface fluxes calculated explicitly. A combination of empirical input and theoretical calculation is used to determine an annual mean equilibrium climate for the model and to study its stability with respect to small perturbations. The insolation, the mean albedos and the equilibrium temperatures for the two model zones are prescribed from observation. The principal agent of interaction between the zones is the vertically integrated poleward transport of atmospheric angular momentum across their common boundary. This is parameterized using an empirical formula derived from a multiyear atmospheric data set. The surface winds are derived from the angular momentum transport assuming the atmosphere to be in a state of dynamic balance on the climatic timescales of interest. A further assumption that the air-sea temperature difference and low level relative humidity remain fixed at their mean observed values then allows the surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat to be calculated. Results from a radiative model, which show a positive lower tropospheric water vapour/infrared radiative feedback on SST perturbations in both zones, are used to calculate the net upward infrared radiative fluxes at the surface. In the model's equilibrium climate, the principal processes balancing the solar radiation absorbed at the surface are evaporation in the tropical zone and net infrared radiation in the extratropical zone. The stability of small perturbations about the equilibrium is studied using a linearized form of the ocean energy equations. Ice-albedo and cloud feedbacks are omitted and attention is focussed on the competing effects of the water vapour/infrared radiative feedback and the turbulent surface flux and oceanic heat transport feedbacks associated with the angular momentum cycle. The perturbation equations involve inter-zone coupling and have coefficients dependent on the values of the equilibrium fluxes and the sensitivity of the angular momentum transport. Analytical solutions for the perturbations are obtained. These provide criteria for the stability of the equilibrium climate. If the evaporative feedback on SST perturbations is omitted, the equilibrium climate is unstable due to the influence of the water vapour/infrared radiative feedback, which dominates over the effects of the sensible heat and ocean heat transport feedbacks. The inclusion of evaporation gives a negative feedback which is of sufficient strength to stabilize the system. The stabilizing mechanism involves wind and humidity factors in the evaporative fluxes that are of comparable magnitude. Both factors involve the angular momentum transport. In including angular momentum and calculating the surface fluxes explicitly, the model presented here differs from the many simple climate models based on the Budyko-Sellers formulation. In that formulation, an atmospheric energy balance equation ...

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“…Although it is generally maintained that dire consequences will follow from such warming, there is substantial argument (Ellsaesser 1984;Idso 1989), and there is little question that the issue is unsettled. As will be discussed later, the models (including those running on supercomputers) are likely to be inadequate for such predictions.…”

Section: Vol 71 No 3 March 1990mentioning

confidence: 99%