The climate and air-quality benefits of wind and solar power in the United States

We estimate the climate value of offshore wind energy with a highly flexible, forward-looking method that estimates the value in a consistent manner under a range of policies, including carbon caps and taxes. Backward looking methods measure the damages avoided due to emissions reductions attributed to renewable energy under an existing policy structure. Under a carbon cap, however, the climate value of offshore wind energy comes entirely from reducing the cost of meeting the cap. Our method for estimating the prospective climate value compares both climate damages and abatement costs in cases with and without offshore wind energy. This climate value can be compared to the costs of reducing barriers to new technologies, such as streamlining approval processes. The climate value depends on the cost of offshore wind technology, the climate policy under consideration, the severity of damages from climate change, and the discount rate. In the absence of a binding climate policy, the climate value of offshore wind energy ranges from $246 billion to $2.5 trillion under central assumptions about damages and discount rate, and can reach over $30 trillion under certain assumptions (low discount rate, high damages, low technology costs). The value of technical changeof moving from the highest cost to lowest cost assumptions about the technology-is estimated to be $300 billion even under the most unfavorable assumptions, dwarfing worldwide R&D investment in all wind energy technology. Using this method, we find that new low carbon technologies can provide a hedge against uncertainty and error in climate policies.

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global climate value of offshore wind energy

Cranmer

Baker

2020

“…For both purposes, we use the Environmental Protection Agency's AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT). Other research that has used AVERT for similar purposes includes Barbose et al (2016), Millstein et al (2017), and Chiang et al (2016). AVERT assesses-on a statistical basis-electricity system dispatch regionally (including for the three broad regions that encompass the US east coast) and, among other things, tracks both the emissions rate and natural gas consumption of generators estimated to be on the margin-and hence able to be displaced by offshore wind-in each hour.…”

Section: Value Quantificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the value of offshore wind along the United States’ Eastern Coast

Mills

Millstein

Jeong

et al. 2018

Self Cite

Offshore wind power deployment has been concentrated in Europe, and remains limited in other areas of the world. Among the many challenges to deployment is the need to understand the value that offshore wind provides within electricity markets. This article develops a rigorous method to assess the economic value of offshore wind along the eastern coastline of the United States, seeking improved understanding of how the value of offshore wind varies both geographically and over time, and what has driven that variation. The article uses historical (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) weather data at thousands of potential offshore wind sites, combined with historical wholesale electricity market outcomes and renewable energy certificate (REC) prices at hundreds of possible transmission interconnection points. We find that the average historical market value of offshore wind from 2007 to 2016considering energy, capacity, and RECs-varies significantly by project location, from $40/MWh to more than $110/MWh, and is highest for sites off of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. As energy and REC prices have fallen in recent years, so too has the market value of offshore wind. The historical value of offshore wind is found to exceed that of onshore wind, due to offshore wind sites being located more favorably in terms of constrained pricing points, and also due to a more-favorable temporal profile of electricity production. Cost reductions that approximate those witnessed recently in Europe may be needed for offshore wind to offer a credible economic value proposition on a widespread basis in the United States.

“…There are several studies evaluating the environmental benefits of solar PV in both China [18][19][20] and other parts of the world [21][22][23][24]. However, there is limited analysis to date on the air quality and carbon emission impacts of various future solar PV deployment and utilization strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate, air quality and human health benefits of various solar photovoltaic deployment scenarios in China in 2030

Yang

Peng

et al. 2018

Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation can greatly reduce both air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil fuel electricity generation. The Chinese government plans to greatly scale up solar PV installation between now and 2030. However, different PV development pathways will influence the range of air quality and climate benefits. Benefits depend on how much electricity generated from PV is integrated into power grids and the type of power plant displaced. Using a coal-intensive power sector projection as the base case, we estimate the climate, air quality, and related human health benefits of various 2030 PV deployment scenarios. We use the 2030 government goal of 400 GW installed capacity but vary the location of PV installation and the extent of inter-provincial PV electricity transmission. We find that deploying distributed PV in the east with inter-provincial transmission maximizes potential CO 2 reductions and air quality-related health benefits (4.2% and 1.2% decrease in national total CO 2 emissions and air pollution-related premature deaths compared to the base case, respectively). Deployment in the east with inter-provincial transmission results in the largest benefits because it maximizes displacement of the dirtiest coal-fired power plants and minimizes PV curtailment, which is more likely to occur without inter-provincial transmission. We further find that the maximum co-benefits achieved with deploying PV in the east and enabling inter-provincial transmission are robust under various maximum PV penetration levels in both provincial and regional grids. We find large potential benefits of policies that encourage distributed PV deployment and facilitate inter-provincial PV electricity transmission in China.