The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest

Abstract

World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r2 values = 0.91±0.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit.

Tour de France, Giro, Vuelta, and classic European races show a unique progression of road cycling speed in the last 20 years

“…In road cycling, ∆ values are negative since p i,j is less than p f,j . t' is as previously defined by Berthelot et al (2008): where t' is the performance year after linear transformation of t; t i,j and t f,j are the years of initial and final performance values in the current period j, respectively. This uniformization of t in the [0,1] interval ensures the objective function (see Berthelot et al, 2008, model function definition) to be well defined for all values of t. The ''initial'' and ''final'' performances of a period are the first and last performances (y) included in the studied period j. a j is the positive curvature factor and b j is the asymptotic limit.…”

“…t' is as previously defined by Berthelot et al (2008): where t' is the performance year after linear transformation of t; t i,j and t f,j are the years of initial and final performance values in the current period j, respectively. This uniformization of t in the [0,1] interval ensures the objective function (see Berthelot et al, 2008, model function definition) to be well defined for all values of t. The ''initial'' and ''final'' performances of a period are the first and last performances (y) included in the studied period j. a j is the positive curvature factor and b j is the asymptotic limit. Coefficients a and b were obtained through a nonlinear least-squares regression, and estimated predictions (period years and number, asymptotic speed values) were calculated for the last period of each event with a credibility interval using a Monte Carlo simulation method.…”

Student projects and the London Olympics in 2012: teaching and learning through modelling sporting performances

“…Berthelot et al (2008) is the only paper I know of that attempts something of the sort. Such models may have limited value for prediction since the relevant, later, part of the data may consist of very few observations.…”

Performance et vieillissement sportif

“…Après plus de 100 ans de compétition, de nombreux records ont été battus dans de nombreuses disciplines et permettent aujourd'hui d'avoir une idée très précise des capacités humaines sous différentes contraintes. Différentes analyses portant sur le développement historique des performances sportives mettent en évidence deux faits majeurs : la performance physique est limitée (Berthelot et al, 2008Blest, 1996 ;El Helou, 2011 ;El Helou et al, 2010 ;Nevill et Whyte, 2005) et dépendante d'un nombre considérable de paramètres. Les hypothèses avancées pour expliquer l'apparente limitation des performances sportives incluent une meilleure implication et structuration des organismes de lutte contre le dopage, un épuisement du vivier mondial (c'est-à-dire un ralentissement dans le développement des processus de détection et de sélection des morphotypes les plus adaptés à une contrainte spécifique : grands -mais pas trop -athlètes africains sur le marathon, etc.…”