The “Cinderella Effect”: The Value of Unexpected March Madness Runs as Advertising for the Schools

Abstract

This study looks at the impact of a university making a surprise (“Cinderella”) run in the men’s NCAA basketball tournament. Our results suggest that surprise success in the tournament has little to no impact on the quantity of applications in subsequent years. However, we find that freshmen enrollments increase for private schools two academic years after a Cinderella run (with mixed results on the quality of freshmen—although not worse). Given an average private school, with 1,253 freshmen and paid tuition of $24,428 (each year) plus room and board, a Cinderella run is worth approximately $7.3 million in 2012-dollars.

The Flutie and Anti-Flutie Effect: The Impact of Football Championships and Athletic Malfeasance on the University

“…Caudill et al (2018) found that cutting a university's football program contracts the student applicant pool and lowers the incoming academic quality of students as measured by ACT test scores. Using "Cinderella" runs in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, Collier et al (2020) noted that applications and freshman enrollments increase at schools that make these unexpected runs. Lastly, Eggers et al (2021) showed that a "Flutie Effect" exists for both the winning team and the losing team in a game identified as a significant upset, with both schools seeing an increase in applications, and the winning school experiencing an increase in enrollment.…”

The “Cinderella Effect” and “Flutie Effect”: The Impact of Unexpected March Madness Runs and NCAA Men’s Basketball Achievement on School’s Application Pools

“…Frank (2004) found similar results, but the effects are almost minimal. Collier et al (2020) found that freshmen enrollments increased for private schools two years after making a surprise run in the men's NCAA basketball tournament. Toma et al (1998) found that notable increases generally occurred in admissions applications received, both in absolute but, more importantly, relative to peer schools, in the years following the champion season.…”