The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects

Abstract

On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar's critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China's socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s00376-021-1313-6.

Industrial Coagglomeration, Green Innovation, and Manufacturing Carbon Emissions: Coagglomeration’s Dynamic Evolution Perspective

“…As one of the largest carbon emitters, China has placed great emphasis on decreasing carbon emissions and has formulated a series of industrial low-carbon growth plans [ 2 ]. In September 2020, it solemnly pledged to the world that it would work to reach a peak in carbon emissions by 2030 and realize carbon neutrality by 2060, namely, “dual-carbon” goals [ 3 ]. Since China is still a developing country in the process of industrialization, it needs to consider economic development while making and implementing carbon emission reduction strategies.…”

Achieving net‐zero emissions targets: An analysis of long‐term scenarios using an integrated assessment model

“…In this work, we assume a GHG net-zero target by 2060, similar as assumed in national studies on China's net-zero goals. 32,33 Our findings highlight the sectors where each major emitter needs to enhance their ambition and efforts to achieve their long-term goals in a cost-effective way. In general, all countries need to focus on the potential for negative emissions, especially in the electricity and the land-use sector.…”

“…where coverage of emissions is unclear or not specified, we assume coverage of emission types as follows: for China, we assume a GHG netzero target by 2060, similar to other (inter)national studies. 13,15,32,33 For India, published studies vary between a conservative approach of interpreting the country's 2070 target as covering CO 2 emissions only, 15 and all GHGs. 21 We apply the more ambitious assumption covering all GHGs, in order to be consistent with the rest of the major emitters presented here as well.…”

Efficiency and Potential Evaluation to Promote Differentiated Low-Carbon Management in Chinese Counties

“…In particular, the parties set binding national targets for reducing carbon emissions. Notably, China, as the largest carbon emitter in the world [ 3 ], had pledged that its carbon emissions will have peaked and balanced out by 2030 and 2060, respectively [ 4 ].…”