The Characteristics and Prognosis of Alpha-Fetoprotein and Des-Gamma-Carboxy Prothrombin Double-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma at Baseline in Higher BCLC Stages

Nagahara, Takakazu; Sugihara, Takaaki; Kihara, Takeshi; Ikeda, Suguru; Hoshino, Yoshiki; Matsuki, Yukako; Sakaguchi, Takuki; Kurumi, Hiroki; Onoyama, Takumi; Takata, Tomoaki; Matono, Tomomitsu; Yamaguchi, Naoyuki; Isomoto, Hajime

doi:10.3390/cancers15020390

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…More recently, some studies indicated that locoregional therapy was selected more frequently in DNHC patients, and the 3-year recurrence rate of these patients was approximately 55%. 19 , 20 However, prediction models of recurrence for DNHC patients treated with local ablation are still insufficient at present. Thus, our research serves to develop and verify a dependable nomogram for this group of patients with the aim of guiding the decision of clinicians.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with AFP and DCP Double-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Local Ablation

Qiao,

Li,

Wang

et al. 2024

JHC

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Purpose Although alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) have a certain predictive ability for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), there are still some cases of aggressive recurrence among patients with AFP and DCP double-negative HCC (DNHC) after local ablation. However, prediction models to forecast the prognosis of DNHC patients are still lacking. Thus, this retrospective study aims to explore the prognostic factors in DNHC patients and develop a nomogram to predict recurrence. Patients and methods 493 DNHC patients who underwent the local ablation at Beijing You’an Hospital between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2022, were enrolled. A part that was admitted from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2018, was designated to the training cohort (n = 307); others from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2022, were allocated to the validation cohort (n = 186). Lasso regression and Cox regression were employed with the aim of screening risk factors and developing the nomogram. The nomogram outcome was assessed by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Independent prognostic factors selected by Lasso-Cox analysis included age, tumor size, tumor number, and gamma-glutamyl transferase. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) of the training and validation groups (0.738, 0.742, 0.836, and 0.758, 0.821) exhibited the excellent predicted outcome of the nomogram. Calibration plots and DCA plots suggest desirable calibration performance and clinical utility. Patients were stratified into three risk groups by means of the nomogram: low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk, respectively. There exists an obvious distinction in recurrence-free survival (RFS) among three groups (p<0.0001). Conclusion In conclusion, we established and validated a nomogram for DNHC patients who received local ablation. The nomogram showed excellent predictive power for the recurrence of HCC and could contribute to guiding clinical decisions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%