The changing radiative forcing of fires: global model estimates for past, present and future

Ward, D. S.; Kloster, Silvia; Mahowald, N. M.; Rogers, Brendan M.; Randerson, James T.; Hess, Peter

doi:10.5194/acp-12-10857-2012

Cited by 240 publications

(329 citation statements)

References 146 publications

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“…These include global emission fluxes from open BB such as deforestation and crop residue burning estimated from satellite-based fire radiative power observations. A number of previous modelling studies have increased BBA emissions by up to a factor of 5 to improve model agreement with observed AOD (Marlier et al, 2013;Ward et al, 2012;Tosca et al, 2013). Here, GFAS emissions were scaled by a factor of 1.7 to give improved agreement of modelled AOD against AERONET observations.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on meteorology are investigated using shortrange forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA). The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i) no aerosols, (ii) with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii) with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC) scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLAS-SIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September-3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m −2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation by 8 ± 1 W m −2 , with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m −2 . BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m −2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m −2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earthatmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 • C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL) but warms air above by around 0.2 • C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s −1 . Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were small compare with model error and the relative increase in forecast skill from the prognostic aerosol simulation over the aerosol climatology was also small. Locally, on a 150 km scale, changes in precipitation reach around 4 mm day −1 due to changes in the location of convection. Over Amazonia, including BBA in the simulation led to fewer rain events that were more intense. This change may be linked to the BBA changing the vertical profile of stability in the lower atmosphere. The localised changes in rainfall tend to average out to give a 5 % (0.06 mm day −1 ) decrease in total precipitation over the Amazonian region (except on day 2 with prognostic BBA). The change in water budget from BBA is, however, dominated by decreased evapotranspiration from the reduced net surface fluxes (0.2 to 0.3 mm day −1 ), since this term is larger than the corresponding changes in precipitation and water vapour convergence.

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Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

et al. 2015

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“…The impact fire has on the ecosystem depends on the local fire regime, which includes a range of important characteristics such as fire frequency, intensity, seasonality, etc. Fire is also important through its effect on radiative forcing, biogeochemical cycling, and biogeophysical effects (Bond-Lamberty et al, 2007;Bowman et al, 2009;Ward et al, 2012;Yue et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

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“…Simultaneously, such models can be developed further to calculate fire emissions in addition to fire occurrence and burned area, such as in studies [6,84•] that used a modified version of the Community Land Model version 3.5 with a carbon-nitrogen biogeochemical model and estimated fire emission changes between the past, present and future. Currently, the above mechanistic fire occurrence/emission models are being implemented in some key global ESMs.…”

Section: Emerging Integrated Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fire Influences on Atmospheric Composition, Air Quality and Climate

Voulgarakis

Field

2015

Curr Pollution Rep

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Fires impact atmospheric composition through their emissions, which range from long-lived gases to shortlived gases and aerosols. Effects are typically larger in the tropics and boreal regions but can also be substantial in highly populated areas in the northern mid-latitudes. In all regions, fire can impact air quality and health. Similarly, its effect on large-scale atmospheric processes, including regional and global atmospheric chemistry and climate forcing, can be substantial, but this remains largely unexplored. The impacts are primarily realised in the boundary layer and lower free troposphere but can also be noticeable in upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, for the most intense fires. In this review, we summarise the recent literature on findings related to fire impact on atmospheric composition, air quality and climate. We explore both observational and modelling approaches and present information on key regions and on the globe as a whole. We also discuss the current and future directions in this area of research, focusing on the major advances in emission estimates, the emerging efforts to include fire as a component in Earth system modelling and the use of modelling to assess health impacts of fire emissions.

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The changing radiative forcing of fires: global model estimates for past, present and future

Cited by 240 publications

References 146 publications

Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Fire Influences on Atmospheric Composition, Air Quality and Climate

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