The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database

Abstract

Abstract:The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in T mean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in T mean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection.

Climate change projections for sustainable and healthy cities

“…For CUSSH, an important characteristic of these GCM data and the accompanying gridded observations is that the information base is consistent across cities. For this reason, an earlier version of the WHO data set was used to provide projection data for 246 global cities included in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database (Milner et al 2017). The disadvantage is the relatively coarse spatial scale: the GCMs have a gridbox resolution of a few hundred kilometres (Figure 1).…”

A Comparative Analysis of Global Datasets and Initiatives for Urban Health and Sustainability

“…The database was then supplemented with data from federal and city-level datasets, and data derived from some of the above geospatial and climate datasources. The database has been used in 'epidemiology of the urban'-type analyses, to investigate inter-city variations in heat exposure due to climate change [82], and environmental risks [83].…”

Vulnerability of Structural Concrete to Extreme Climate Variances

“…Damage can appear in lower floors and shallow concrete foundations of buildings. According to various statistics [4][5][6], insurance claims can reach 400 million pounds in the UK due to many extreme climatic reasons [7][8][9][10]. Additionally, the increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will accelerate the carbonation rate of concrete.…”