2022
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5
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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Abstract: Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude no… Show more

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Cited by 212 publications
(108 citation statements)
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“…In FRM, specific self-reinforcing mechanisms appear as learning effects and interconnected management that privileges certain kinds of expertise (Parsons et al 2019 ); and as sunk costs of flood defences, high transition costs because of narrow technical expertise, strongly formalised institutions and organisations and the perceived responsibility for FRM at the state level (Wiering et al 2017 ). Adaptive expectations, that is, basing future decisions on the experience of past events assuming that risks will remain as they are, manifest in difficulties to design levees and reservoirs not just to the level of previous but to unprecedented flood events (Kreibich et al 2022 ).…”
Section: Path Dependency and Flood Risk Managementmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In FRM, specific self-reinforcing mechanisms appear as learning effects and interconnected management that privileges certain kinds of expertise (Parsons et al 2019 ); and as sunk costs of flood defences, high transition costs because of narrow technical expertise, strongly formalised institutions and organisations and the perceived responsibility for FRM at the state level (Wiering et al 2017 ). Adaptive expectations, that is, basing future decisions on the experience of past events assuming that risks will remain as they are, manifest in difficulties to design levees and reservoirs not just to the level of previous but to unprecedented flood events (Kreibich et al 2022 ).…”
Section: Path Dependency and Flood Risk Managementmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Since the structural vulnerability is defined as the potential of a particular class of buildings or infrastructure facilities to be affected or damaged under a given flood intensity (Faella and Nigro, 2003), damage by flood hazard depends on the vulnerability of exposed buildings (Schanze, 2006;Merz et al, 2010). Vulnerability matrices, depth-damage curves and vulnerability indices (Balica et al, 2009; or indicator-based methodology (Kappes et al, 2012) are methods and approaches mainly used for physical vulnerability assessment (Fuchs et al, 2019;Kumar and Bhattacharjya, 2020;Malgwi et al, 2020). The indicator-based methods usually provide a scale of flood vulnerability to elements at risk, having the strength of allowing significant factors that contribute to flood vulnerability to be understood easily by potential users.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This makes measurement of progress in reducing the disaster risk difficult if not infeasible. Therefore, some authors stressed the need for the use of empirical data from past events to provide powerful analytical tools (Apel et al, 2008;Vamvatsikos et al, 2010;Kreibich et al, 2022). The ideal solution would be a model that is simple, as the empirical ones, but that includes quantitative and qualitative explicative parameters in damage assessment, as the synthetic ones, to capture the full complexity of buildings vulnerability (Schanze, 2006;Balica et al, 2009;Lal et al, 2012;Morelli et al, 2021).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Floods are associated with extremes in rainfall, whereas drought is a protracted period of deficient precipitation (Trenberth, 2005). Rapid transition from one end of precipitation spectrum to the other, for example, from droughts to floods or vice versa can be associated with larger socio‐economic impacts than each individual type of the events, in particular, if the second event was much more hazardous than the first (Kreibich et al., 2022). There are myriad examples in this regard.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%