The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: Many Approaches, Many Limitations and a Compromise

Avelino, André Fernandes Tomon; Hewings, Geoffrey J. D.

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-16237-5_7

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Proposed by Romanoff and Levine (1977) and based on the series expansion of the Leontief inverse, it introduces production timing in the IO framework. While developed before Cole's model, it was applied to disaster contexts much later (Avelino & Hewings, 2017;Okuyama et al, 2004). In the SIM, industries are classified according to three production schedules: anticipatory, just-in-time, or responsive.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the Economic Impact of Natural Disasters Generated by Different Input–Output Models: An Application to the 2007 Chehalis River Flood (WA)

Avelino

Dall’erba

2018

Risk Analysis

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Due to the concentration of assets in disaster-prone zones, changes in risk landscape and in the intensity of natural events, property losses have increased considerably in recent decades. While measuring these stock damages is common practice in the literature, the assessment of economic ripple effects due to business interruption is still limited and available estimates tend to vary significantly across models. This article focuses on the most popular single-region input-output models for disaster impact evaluation. It starts with the traditional Leontief model and then compares its assumptions and results with more complex methodologies (rebalancing algorithms, the sequential interindustry model, the dynamic inoperability input-output model, and its inventory counterpart). While the estimated losses vary across models, all the figures are based on the same event, the 2007 Chehalis River flood that impacted three rural counties in Washington State. Given that the large majority of floods take place in rural areas, this article gives the practitioner a thorough review of how future events can be assessed and guidance on model selection.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the Economic Impact of Natural Disasters Generated by Different Input–Output Models: An Application to the 2007 Chehalis River Flood (WA)

Avelino

Dall’erba

2018

Risk Analysis

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“…According to Avelino and Hewings (2017), Oosterhaven and Bouwmeester (2016), and Okuyama (2008), there are three types of techniques to compute the higher-or indirect-order effects caused by a natural hazard-related catastrophe: (1) input-output models; (2) general equilibrium models; and (3) econometrics. The first two are micro-founded macroeconomic models for ex ante evaluation, and econometric models are used generally for ex post evaluation.…”

Section: Justification Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It also does not provide insight into the immediate subregional and sectoral effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe on a specific place of a given economy. Avelino (2017) and Avelino and Hewings (2017) provide a broad discussion of the temporal implications in the impact evaluation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador

Salgado

Ramírez-Álvarez

Mancheno

2021

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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The 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador. This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective, with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study. In general, the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model, which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers. Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated, which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method. The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant, and under some of the simulated scenarios, based on the official information with respect to earthquake management, the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.

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“…The Basic Framework. Our core model builds on the GDIO model developed by Avelino and Hewings (2019). Input-Output (IO) models use regional Input-Output tables, commonly provided by statistical agencies, to represent the production structure of the economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID‐19 policy responses on Canada's provinces in (almost) real time

Cotton

Kashi

Lloyd‐Ellis

et al. 2022

Canadian J of Economics

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We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lock-down and re-opening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time-lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally-adjusted, input-output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios for the impacts of lock-down and reopening which allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations, and changes in the composition of demand. Taking account of the observed variation in re-opening strategies across provinces, we estimate the costs of the policy response in term of lost hours of employment and production.

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The Challenge of Estimating the Impact of Disasters: Many Approaches, Many Limitations and a Compromise

Cited by 13 publications

References 39 publications

Comparing the Economic Impact of Natural Disasters Generated by Different Input–Output Models: An Application to the 2007 Chehalis River Flood (WA)

Comparing the Economic Impact of Natural Disasters Generated by Different Input–Output Models: An Application to the 2007 Chehalis River Flood (WA)

An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador

Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID‐19 policy responses on Canada's provinces in (almost) real time

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