The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability

Raskin, Paul; Electris, Christi; Rosen, Richard A.

doi:10.3390/su2082626

Cited by 96 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The PR path requires unprecedented political will for establishing the necessary regulatory, economic, social, technological, and legal mechanisms [33]. This strong policy is used to meet social and environmental sustainability goals following widespread concern over environmental deterioration, social conflict, and economic instability.…”

Section: Conventional Worldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

et al. 2012

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Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997-2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform-PR, Market Forces-MF, Breakdown-B, Fortress World-FW, Eco-Communalism-EC and New Sustainability Paradigm-NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP-Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

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Section: Conventional Worldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…'MF is constructed as a future in which free market optimism remains dominant and proves well-founded [33]'. 'Market-driven globalization, trade liberalization, institutional modernization-relies centrally on the self-correcting logic of competitive markets to address global challenges [21].…”

Section: Conventional Worldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

et al. 2012

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“…These alternative pathways for world development have been extensively used in numerous global, regional, and national studies (Hunt et al 2012). Each one of these scenarios tells a different plausible story of the twenty-first century with varying patterns of resource use, environmental impacts, and social conditions (Raskin et al 2010). …”

Section: Scenarios Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing and Modelling the Influence of Household Characteristics on Per Capita Water Consumption

Hussien

Memon

Savić

2016

Water Resour Manage

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Sustainable urban water supply management requires, ideally, accurate evidence based estimations on per capita consumption and a good understanding of the factors influencing the consumption. The information can then be used to achieve improved water demand forecasts. Water consumption patterns in the developed countries have been extensively investigated. However, very little is known for the developing world. This paper investigates per capita water consumption resulting from water use activities in different types of households typically found in urban areas of the developing world. A data collection programme was executed for 407 households to extract information on household characteristics, water user behaviour and intensity and the nature of indoor and outdoor water use activities. The rigorous statistical analysis of the data shows that per capita water consumption increases with income: 241, 272 and 290 l/capita/day for low, medium and high income households, respectively. Additionally, the results suggest that per capita consumption increases with the number of adult female members in the household and almost one-third of consumption is via taps. The collected data has been used to develop statistical models using two different regression techniques: multiple linear (STEPWISE) and evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR). The inclusion of demographic parameters in the developed models considerably improved the prediction accuracy. Two of the best performing models are used to forecast the water demand for the city, using four future scenarios: market forces, fortress world, policy reform and great transition. The results suggest that the domestic water demand would be highest in the fortress world scenario due to the increase in population and size of built-up area.

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“…However, on close inspection of many of the outputs, the global peak dates assumed tend to be prior to 2015. Given that the results from IAMs are used extensively within the policy process, arguably, decision makers are being informed by overly optimistic, or unrealistic (past), peaking dates (Hansen et al, 2008;Nordhaus, 2010;Raskin, Electris, & Rosen, 2010) and low growth rates to the peak year (Baer & Mastrandrea, 2006;King, Richard, & Tyldesley, 2011;Ranger, Gohar, Lowe, Bowen, & Ward, 2010;Stern et al, 2006). If more consideration is given to how soon emissions can feasibly peak, a different quantitative analysis arises.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy

Bows‐Larkin

2014

Climate Policy

134

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All sectors face decarbonization for a 2 8C temperature increase to be avoided. Nevertheless, meaningful policy measures that address rising CO 2 from international aviation and shipping remain woefully inadequate. Treated with a similar approach within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they are often debated as if facing comparable challenges, and even influence each others' mitigation policies. Yet their strengths and weaknesses have important distinctions. This article sheds light on these differences so that they can be built upon to improve the quality of debate and ensuing policy development. The article quantifies '2 8C' pathways for these sectors, highlighting the need for mitigation measures to be urgently accelerated. It reviews recent developments, drawing attention to one example where a change in aviation mitigation policy had a direct impact on measures to cut CO 2 from shipping. Finally, the article contrasts opportunities and barriers towards mitigation. The article concludes that there is a portfolio of opportunities for short-to medium-term decarbonization for shipping, but its complexity is its greatest barrier to change. In contrast, the more simply structured aviation sector is pinning too much hope on emissions trading to deliver CO 2 cuts in line with 2 8C. Instead, the solution remains controversial and unpopular -avoiding 2 8C requires demand management. Policy relevanceThe governance arrangements around the CO 2 produced by international aviation and shipping are different from other sectors because their emissions are released in international airspace and waters. Instead, through the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) were charged with developing policies towards mitigating their emissions. Slow progress to date, coupled with strong connections with rapidly growing economies, has led to the CO 2 from international transport growing at a higher rate than the average rate from all other sectors. This article considers this rapid growth, and the potential for future CO 2 growth in the context of avoiding a 2 8C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. It explores similarities and differences between these two sectors, highlighting that a reliance on global market-based measures to deliver required CO 2 cuts will likely leave both at odds with the overarching climate goal.

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The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability

Cited by 96 publications

References 15 publications

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Assessing and Modelling the Influence of Household Characteristics on Per Capita Water Consumption

All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy

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