The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation and the Utility of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime

Thayer, Bradley A.

doi:10.1080/09636419509347592

Cited by 67 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In this view, the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the forging of alliances serve as substitutes in the quest for security (Betts 1993;Davis 1993;Thayer 1995). The supremacy of a superpower ally serves to deter attacks on its nonnuclear protégées, negating their need to pursue nuclear weapons.…”

Section: External Determinantsmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation

Singh¹,

Way

2004

Journal of Conflict Resolution

207

216

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Fears of rogue states, withdrawal of cold war-era security guarantees, a falling technological threshold, and availability to terrorist organizations ensure that nuclear weapons proliferation remains a central security issue and that developing an adequate theory of proliferation ranks high on the agenda. A data set on nuclear proliferation is constructed that identifies three different stages on the path to the weaponization of nuclear weapons technology. Hazard models and multinomial logit are used to test theories of nuclear proliferation. Results suggest that nuclear weapons proliferation is strongly associated with the level of economic development, the external threat environment, lack of great-power security guarantees, and a low level of integration in the world economy.Sincetheadventoftheatomicage,nuclearweapons proliferation has been one of the major security issues facing the world. After the end of the cold war, concerns about proliferation have grown rather than subsided: the withdrawal of superpower security guarantees has created incentives for smaller powers to acquire nuclear weapons, a handful of "rogue" states have sought nuclear arms, Pakistan and India have joined the ranks of overt nuclear powers, the technological threshold necessary to develop atomic weapons is in reach of ever more nations, and the possibility of new nuclear powers selling weapons to terrorist organizations has focused concerns. Controversy rages around the world over U.S. plans to build a national missile defense (NMD) system to fend off emerging nuclear threats, and scholars debate whether NMD will fan the fires of proliferation or reduce the incentive for more states to acquire nuclear 859 AUTHORS' NOTE: Thanks to

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Section: External Determinantsmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation

Singh¹,

Way

2004

Journal of Conflict Resolution

207

216

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“…Nevertheless, and much more important, the NPT has created a framework allowing 'great powers to punish violators, not in the name of power politics, but rather in the name of a more felicitous concept, the maintenance of an international norm', as Bradley Thayer noted two decades ago, an argument which is strongly supported by interim developments. 91 Finally, the NPT provides minor players with a platform to vent their discontent and receive (numerous albeit trivial) benefits. Arguably, the treaty thus reduces the transaction costs for great powers interested in non-proliferation.…”

Section: A Diluted Interest In Enforcementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond Pessimism: Why the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Will Not Collapse

Horovitz

2014

Journal of Strategic Studies

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This article questions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evidence on states' interests and interactions within the NPT's framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty's enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future. 1 I am grateful to an anonymous reviewer for pointing out this discrepancy between the literature and privately held views within the nuclear policy community.

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“…According to this logic, states act in the international system with the goal of increasing their own national security interests, and to decrease the threat from foreign powers. This logic also predicts that military solutions are the primary tools to deal with uncertainty in an inherently threatening international environment (Waltz 1979;Mearsheimer, Franklin, and Davis 1993;Thayer 1995;Paul 2000;Mearsheimer 2001). Even though the structuralist-realist school has contributed several important insights to aspects of the understanding of nuclear logics, this theoretical field does have its weaknesses, primarily that it neglects decision-making processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%