The Causal Connection between CO2 Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract

The rapid agricultural development and mechanization of agronomic diligence has led to a significant growth in energy consumption and CO2 emission. Agriculture has a dominant contribution to boosting the economy of any country. In this paper, we demonstrate carbon dioxide emissions’ association with cropped area, energy use, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita, improved seed distribution, total food grains and water availability in Pakistan for the period of 1987-2017. We employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to examine the variables’ stationarity. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique to cointegration was applied to demonstrate the causality linkage among study variables from the evidence of long-run and short-run analyses. The long-run evidence reveals that cropped area, energy usage, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita and water availability have a positive and significant association with carbon dioxide emissions, while the analysis results of improved seed distribution and total food grains have a negative association with carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. Overall, the long-run effects are stronger than the short-run dynamics, in terms of the impact of explanatory variables on carbon dioxide emission, thus making the findings heterogeneous. Possible initiatives should be taken by the government of Pakistan to improve the agriculture sector and also introduce new policies to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide.

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“…Rehman et al [41] studied the causal association between carbon emissions and agricultural productivity in the perspective of Pakistan. The outcomes of the analyses demonstrated that the energy consumption of harvested land, and the obtainability of fertilizers and water, as well as the GDP are significantly related to each other and positively related to carbon emissions.…”

Does Environmental Pollution hurt Agricultural Productive Efficiency? A New Evidence using ARDL and Wavelet Coherence Approaches

“…However, all the named variables have proved to be stationary after taking the first difference, i.e., I (I). In the context of the unit root test, the literature has reported that when we found a mixture of variables' integration, it is crucial to test long-term and short-run associations using the ARDL approach (Rehman et al, 2019). 6 lists the ARDL bounds test findings to co-integration at the 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels.…”

“…Schmidhuber (2007) proposed that climate change would directly affect economic growth, food supply, and prices after finding a strong relationship between CO2 emission and crop yield. Likewise, several studies have been carried out on climate change and agriculture productivity for developing nations, particularly in agriculture-based economy, from the exhaustive evaluation on the implementation of econometrics in agriculture and environmental economics (Fan and Carroll, 2012;Ozturk, 2015;Rehman et al, 2019). For the audience's ease, an indepth systematic review of additional literature has comprised in tabular form as follows.…”

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“…Household characteristics variables included the location (village), age, education level, ethnic group, and household size, It was demonstrated that household demographic characteristics play an important role in the climate adaption decision (Nhemachena et al 2014). The livelihood sources in a rural area are increasingly important to understand the local community vulnerability to extreme climate events mostly for those who are dominantly dependent on subsistence farming (Piya et al 2012). -Household livelihood sources: Crop farming (purpose of crop production), livestock occupation, herd size (cattle, goat, sheep, and fowls), income from livestock, and nonfarm activities were used to determine the household main livelihoods sources.…”