The Carrington event: Possible doses to crews in space from a comparable event

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Stephens, Daniel L.; Hoff, Jennifer L.; Zapp, E. Neal; Moussa, Hanna; Miller, Thomas M.; Campbell, Christina E.; Nichols, T. L.

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2005.01.111

Cited by 57 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Previous modelling efforts (Townsend et al, 2003(Townsend et al, , 2006(Townsend et al, , 2013Stephens et al, 2005;Thomas et al, 2007Thomas et al, , 2011Rodger et al, 2008;Calisto et al, 2012Calisto et al, , 2013Norman et al, 2014) on the effects of an extreme, Carrington-like, SPE fitted their primary spectrum to the E > 30 MeV fluence (F30) estimated by McCracken et al (2001a,b) from ice-core nitrate data. Ice core nitrate deposits have, however, now been shown to not offer a reliable index of energetic particle fluence hitting the upper atmosphere, and the nitrate spike seen in the ice core data presented by McCracken et al (2001a,b) is most likely mis-dated and due to biomass burning plumes rather than SEP. (Wolff et al, 2012;Cliver and Dietrich, 2013;Kovaltsov et al, 2014).…”

Section: Extreme Solar Particle Event Spectramentioning

confidence: 98%

“…2 (top right panel) shows the three spectral shapes used to model the 1859 Carrington Event and 775 AD event to intersect at a threshold energy of 30 MeV and 200 MeV, respectively, as indicated by black circles. This method of scaling-up specific recorded events of the past 60 years to attempt to reconstruct the spectrum of older, extreme SPEs such as the Carrington Event, has been employed by previous studies to determine the forcing of atmospheric chemistry and destruction of the stratospheric ozone shield (Rodger et al, 2008;Thomas et al, 2007Thomas et al, , 2011Calisto et al, 2012Calisto et al, , 2013; for studying a worst-case scenario for solar particle events and irradiation of human crews or spacecraft components (Townsend et al, 2003(Townsend et al, , 2006(Townsend et al, , 2013Stephens et al, 2005); or for calculating the dose delivered in the martian atmosphere and surface (Norman et al, 2014).…”

Section: Extreme Solar Particle Event Spectramentioning

confidence: 99%

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Constraints on a potential aerial biosphere on Venus: I. Cosmic rays

Dartnell

Nordheim

Patel

et al. 2015

Icarus

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Section: Extreme Solar Particle Event Spectramentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Extreme Solar Particle Event Spectramentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraints on a potential aerial biosphere on Venus: I. Cosmic rays

Dartnell

Nordheim

Patel

et al. 2015

Icarus

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“…It is expected that vehicle shielding thicknesses for a long duration, deep space mission will be larger. Townsend et al (2006) state that typical spacecraft shielding thickness is about 10 g/cm 2 . Shielding on Apollo averaged about 7-8 g/cm 2 and the space shuttle averaged about 10 g/cm 2 (Cucinotta, 2005).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space radiation accelerator experiments – The role of neutrons and light ions

Norbury

Slaba

2014

Life Sciences in Space Research

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“…The largest flare observed on the Sun (on 1859 September 1) had an energy output of ∼ 10 32 erg (Carrington 1859;Hodgson 1859;Tsurutani et al 2003;Townsend et al 2006), i.e. by a factor of ∼ 2000 too weak to explain the AD 774/5 event as SPE.…”

Section: Solar Flaresmentioning

confidence: 99%

A solar super‐flare as cause for the ¹⁴C variation in AD 774/5?

Neuhäuser

Hambaryan

2014

Astron Nachr

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We present further considerations regarding the strong 14C variation in AD 774/5. For its cause, either a solar super‐flare or a short gamma‐ray burst were suggested. We show that all kinds of stellar or neutron star flares would be too weak for the observed energy input at Earth in AD 774/5. Even though Maehara et al. (2012) present two super‐flares with ∼1035 erg of presumably solar‐type stars, we would like to caution: These two stars are poorly studied and may well be close binaries, and/or having a M‐type dwarf companion, and/or may be much younger and/or much more magnetic than the Sun – in any such case, they might not be true solar analog stars. From the frequency of large stellar flares averaged over all stellar activity phases (maybe obtained only during grand activity maxima), one can derive (a limit of) the probability for a large solar flare at a random time of normal activity: We find the probability for one flare within 3000 years to be possibly as low as 0.3 to 0.008 considering the full 1σ error range. Given the energy estimate in Miyake et al. (2012) for the AD 774/5 event, it would need to be ∼2000 stronger than the Carrington event as solar super‐flare. If the AD 774/5 event as solar flare would be beamed (to an angle of only ∼24°), 100 times lower energy would be needed. A new AD 774/5 energy estimate by Usoskin et al. (2013) with a different carbon cycle model, yielding 4 ot 6 time lower 14C production, predicts 4–6 times less energy. If both reductions are applied, the AD 774/5 event would need to be only ∼4 times stronger than the Carrington event in 1859 (if both had similar spectra). However, neither 14C nor 10Be peaks were found around AD 1859. Hence, the AD 774/5 event (as solar flare) either was not beamed that strongly, and/or it would have been much more than 4‐6 times stronger than Carrington, and/or the lower energy estimate (Usoskin et al. 2013) is not correct, and/or such solar flares cannot form (enough) 14C and 10Be. The 1956 solar energetic particle event was followed by a small decrease in directly observed cosmic rays. We conclude that large solar super‐flares remain very unlikely as the cause for the 14C increase in AD 774/5. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

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The Carrington event: Possible doses to crews in space from a comparable event

Cited by 57 publications

References 9 publications

Constraints on a potential aerial biosphere on Venus: I. Cosmic rays

Constraints on a potential aerial biosphere on Venus: I. Cosmic rays

Space radiation accelerator experiments – The role of neutrons and light ions

A solar super‐flare as cause for the ¹⁴C variation in AD 774/5?

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The Carrington event: Possible doses to crews in space from a comparable event

Cited by 57 publications

References 9 publications

Constraints on a potential aerial biosphere on Venus: I. Cosmic rays

Constraints on a potential aerial biosphere on Venus: I. Cosmic rays

Space radiation accelerator experiments – The role of neutrons and light ions

A solar super‐flare as cause for the 14C variation in AD 774/5?

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Product

Resources

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A solar super‐flare as cause for the ¹⁴C variation in AD 774/5?