The carbon effects of the evolution of node status in the world trade network

Abstract

Trade has contributed to economic development and has brought countries or regions of the world closer together, but it has also had a significant impact on the global environment, particularly in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. Does an increase in a country’s trade necessarily contribute to an increase in its carbon emissions? This paper examines the impact of changes in the position of major countries in the world trade network on their carbon emission levels. In terms of research methodology, this paper achieves an innovation by adopting a complex network approach to analyze the structural characteristics of the trade relationship networks of major countries or regions in the world, providing a new perspective for the study of the relationship between trade development and carbon emissions. The results of the study show that: trade relations among countries are relatively stable from 2000 to 2020, trade ties among members of regional integration organizations are increasing, the top ten countries in terms of importance are mainly developed countries, and China has very close trade relations with most countries. Based on the analysis of structural characteristics, the impact of changes in the network status of each country on its ocarbon emissions is analyzed, using indicators such as the degree centrality of each node as the independent variable and its domestic carbon emission level as the dependent variable. It is found that developed countries have a significant positive impact on in-going degree centrality, and insignificant impact on out-going degree centrality and betweenness centrality. In contrast, developing countries have a significant positive impact on out-going degree centrality and a negative impact on carbon emissions by betweenness centrality, and this conclusion tells us that not all export growth will contribute to higher levels of carbon emissions in the country. Eigenvector centrality has a negative effect on carbon emissions for both developing and developed countries, and closeness to centrality has no effect on carbon emissions while closeness centrality has no effect on carbon emissions. The results of this study again show that the influence of developed countries is greater than that of developing countries on carbon emissions; therefore, the role of developed countries can be taken into account in subsequent studies on carbon emission reduction.