The carbon detectives

Abstract

Even if countries agree to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, researchers face the monumental task of precisely monitoring the amounts of gases that are being emitted, and where. New tech will help, but the complications are many.

Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability

“…Despite efforts to improve emission inventories, there is an increase in both relative and absolute errors in global FFCO 2 emissions because emissions are rising faster in nations with less accurate estimates (Andres et al 2014). To support individual countries' objectives for the Paris Agreement, atmospheric observations of CO 2 have the potential to provide an independent assessment of reported FFCO 2 emissions and associated trends (Peters et al 2017b, Battersby 2018). However, these observations provide constraints on the net contribution of both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks.…”

“…Atmospheric simulations of these observations relied upon 'bottom-up' inventories for FFCO 2 (Gurney et al 2002, Rödenbeck et al 2003, Peters et al 2007, Chevallier et al 2010, Francey et al 2013, Peylin et al 2013, Liu et al 2014, Gaubert et al 2019 to account for increases in background CO 2 . With increasing surface observations in urban regions (McKain et al 2012, Staufer et al 2016, Turner et al 2016, Wu et al 2016, Verhulst et al 2017, Mitchell et al 2018 and the advent of satellite constellation dedicated to carbon gas measurements (O'Brien et al 2016, Pillai et al 2016, Broquet et al 2018, Crisp 2018, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations will be measured with much higher precision and resolution than before (Battersby 2018), with greater potential to distinguish natural and anthropogenic contributions. Nevertheless, the attribution of temporal-spatial variations in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to anthropogenic emission trends is fundamentally limited by the balance of natural and anthropogenic variability and magnitude (National Research Council et al 2010, Shiga et al 2014.…”