The Capacity Trend Method: A new approach for enumerating the Newfoundland cod fisheries (1675–1790)

Abstract

We apply a novel methodology to the study of the Newfoundland cod fisheries in order to determine a reasoned and acceptable chronological value series for total catch amounts in the early modern period where data are scarce. The paper focuses on the two main protagonists in the Newfoundland fisheries arena in that period: France and England. The period 1675-1790 has been selected as a viable and representative chronology for a case study where data, while available in part, are limited and often missing. The new methodology proposed here enables further exploration, input and assessment such that an ever-greater level of accuracy, integrity and robustness may be achieved in future.

Historical Demographic Processes Dominate Genetic Variation in Ancient Atlantic Cod Mitogenomes

“…Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L. 1758) is a benthopelagic predatory fish with high reproductive rates and with a fundamental ecological role in marine ecosystems (Barth et al, 2017;Edvardsson et al, 2019). It has been one of the most exploited fish species in the North Atlantic Ocean (Carr et al, 1995;Árnason et al, 2000;Nicholls et al, 2021). The distribution of this species extends through the cold waters of North America, across the continental shelves of Greenland and Iceland, and northern Europe (Lait et al, 2018).…”

Accelerated extractions of North Atlantic cod and herring, 1520–1790

“…These data are regarded as reliable and, wherever possible, they have been corroborated using two or more sources (1,187 total, 673 herring, 514 cod). ● Incorporated data —data with some level of calculation and conversion to metric tonnes. Typically, these data are based directly on at least some given data points within the same occurrence and are regarded as reliable (1,515 total, 758 herring, 757 cod). ● Trended, Interpolated or Extrapolated data —these data are obtained through calculation, informed estimates and/or using the Capacity Trend Method (Nicholls et al., 2021). Wherever possible, they are based on the last, nearest known given data points and plotted against similar fisheries to reflect trends in fishing effort (4,123 total, 1871 herring, 2,252 cod).…”

“…• Trended, Interpolated or Extrapolated data-these data are obtained through calculation, informed estimates and/or using the Capacity Trend Method (Nicholls et al, 2021). Wherever possible, they are based on the last, nearest known given data points and plotted against similar fisheries to reflect trends in fishing effort (4,123 total, 1871 herring, 2,252 cod).…”

“…This study was based on new data from French notarial and census records and a full audit of published English admiralty data. We introduced a new interpolation approach called the capacity trend method to enable us to fill gaps in the existing time series (Nicholls et al, 2021). The findings documented that Cadigan and Hutchings (2002) and Rose (2004Rose ( , 2007 significantly underestimated catches and present an erroneous trajectory that cannot be used to understand cod population dynamics.…”

“…Data sources: Notarial records, Census of vessels. The scale of landings by French fishers has been established byNicholls et al, (2021).Data coverage: 95.2%: 54.6% given, 40.6% incorporated and 4.8% trended; actual data points: 148 given, 110 incorporated and 13 trended, interpolated or extrapolated. Data set and Supporting Documentation: https://doi.org/10.6084/ m9.figsh are.14480505 Note: While French Basque fisheries operated separately, they are recorded together with the general French values for the purposes of data continuity in this work.…”