The calm before the storm: A punctuated equilibrium theory of international politics

Abstract

Research has shown that policymaking in numerous domestic policies, across a multitude of polities, systematically produces a pattern of change that matches Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), characterized by many incremental and occasional dramatic changes. The field of International Relations (IR), however, has paid surprisingly little attention to PET, even though the same pattern of change is also found in international politics. This study attempts to fill this gap and explains stability and change in international politics based on PET. Specifically, we detail the dynamics behind this pattern of behavior, both at the domestic and the international level, as well as their interplay. The empirical section shows that different indicators of international politics, including troop deployments, foreign aid and international trade, follow a leptokurtic pattern of change, which characterizes Punctuated Equilibrium, and whereby changes in countries' behavior are generally incremental, representing periods of relative stability, and punctuated by large changes that dramatically overthrow existing policies. Moreover, our results indicate that policy outputs where greater friction is at play are more punctuated than those policies that cannot as easily or directly be managed. This study urges future research to further explore the dynamics of stability and change at the aggregate, international level. K E Y W O R D Sforeign aid, international politics, international trade, punctuated equilibrium theory, troop deployments

Grasping Foreign and Security Policy Change: Patterns and Conditions of Change Among Liberal Democracies

“…We argue that such "stick-and-slip" dynamics should also apply to foreign and security policy (see, for instance, Joly & Richter, 2019). In fact, second-image theories of FPA emphasize that foreign and security policies are driven by domestic interests within specific institutional settings (Kaarbo, 2015).…”

“…Moreover, non-structural sources for change, such as singular events (Brexit and Russia's war in Ukraine) have also been found influential as they impact the domestic decision-making arena (Hermann, 1990;Lee, 2012). On the state level, a number of analyses suggest that domestic factors such as budgetary constraints (Brummer & Oppermann, 2021, p. 322), bureaucratic structures (Allison, 1971;Joly & Richter, 2019), and veto players (Oppermann & Brummer, 2018), for example, within coalitions (Kaarbo, 2017) or legislatures (Böller, 2022), matter for foreign policy decisions. Besides, changing governments , advocacy coalitions (Haar & Pierce, 2021), or ideologies of domestic actors (Merke et al, 2020) may also affect policies.…”

New Directions in the Study of Populism in International Relations

“…Second, bureaucracy ideally constitutes an element of continuity in foreign policy because of its apolitical nature and recurrent practices. The literature also emphasizes how foreign policy change can be hindered in highly bureaucratic states ( Joly and Richter 2019 ). But in reality, bureaucracy is itself subject to political developments like partisan and government changes under certain conditions (see Lequesne in this Forum).…”

Editorial introduction: Punctuated equilibrium, multiple streams, environmental governance, and many more

“…In the second article, “The Calm Before the Storm: A Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of International Politics,” Joly and Richter (2023) argue that the field of International Relations (IR) has not given enough consideration to PET and investigate the causes of stability and change in international politics and how these dynamics work at both the domestic and international level, as well as how they interact with each other. They demonstrate that various indicators of international politics, such as troop deployments, foreign aid, and international trade, exhibit a leptokurtic pattern of change.…”