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“…In general, elasticities were lower or even became negative, a sign that the wage curve seemed to better express this specific period. This regression covered the same period studied by Baltagi et al (2017). Even though their results seemed to better confirm the expected shape of the wage curve, the main conclusions were very similar to the ones found here.…”
Section: The Rural-urban Dichotomy and The Wage Curvesupporting
confidence: 81%
“…Santolin and Antigo (2009) found that the wage curve seems to be non-dynamic in six metropolitan regions (PNAD data, 1997(PNAD data, -2005, but there is a higher wage flexibility for the whole group of workers (À0.15) than for formal workers (À0.05). More recently, Baltagi et al (2017) controlled for individual observed heterogeneity and state-level fixed effects, with the lagged unemployment rate as an instrument for current unemployment rate (PNAD, 2002(PNAD, -2009. They found that only for the informal sector is the unemployment elasticity significant (À0.251), and compared workers in the formal and informal sectors with similar probabilities of being formal, finding unemployment elasticities of À0.129 and À0.305, respectively.…”
This study aims to shed new empirical light on the importance of the wage curve in a developing economy. The main contribution to the empirical literature is related to the analysis being conducted at different regional levels of a developing economy. This indicates that municipal‐level data seems to be more adequate for wage curve evaluation, and that spatial dependency should be considered to adequately control for local labor market characteristics. Results for Brazil show that wage flexibility is higher in less dense local labor markets and in the informal sector. Controlling for unobserved local characteristics is necessary to obtain the ‘true’ elasticity of wages with respect to local unemployment rates, while spatial autocorrelation effects should be accounted for when the spatial unit of analysis is rather small to consider the interactions that happen inside a specific labor market area. Finally, a significant part of the difference in outcomes between formal and informal sectors appears to originate from spatial–economic dependence effects, indicating that labor market areas are more suitable for such analysis.
“…In general, elasticities were lower or even became negative, a sign that the wage curve seemed to better express this specific period. This regression covered the same period studied by Baltagi et al (2017). Even though their results seemed to better confirm the expected shape of the wage curve, the main conclusions were very similar to the ones found here.…”
Section: The Rural-urban Dichotomy and The Wage Curvesupporting
confidence: 81%
“…Santolin and Antigo (2009) found that the wage curve seems to be non-dynamic in six metropolitan regions (PNAD data, 1997(PNAD data, -2005, but there is a higher wage flexibility for the whole group of workers (À0.15) than for formal workers (À0.05). More recently, Baltagi et al (2017) controlled for individual observed heterogeneity and state-level fixed effects, with the lagged unemployment rate as an instrument for current unemployment rate (PNAD, 2002(PNAD, -2009. They found that only for the informal sector is the unemployment elasticity significant (À0.251), and compared workers in the formal and informal sectors with similar probabilities of being formal, finding unemployment elasticities of À0.129 and À0.305, respectively.…”
This study aims to shed new empirical light on the importance of the wage curve in a developing economy. The main contribution to the empirical literature is related to the analysis being conducted at different regional levels of a developing economy. This indicates that municipal‐level data seems to be more adequate for wage curve evaluation, and that spatial dependency should be considered to adequately control for local labor market characteristics. Results for Brazil show that wage flexibility is higher in less dense local labor markets and in the informal sector. Controlling for unobserved local characteristics is necessary to obtain the ‘true’ elasticity of wages with respect to local unemployment rates, while spatial autocorrelation effects should be accounted for when the spatial unit of analysis is rather small to consider the interactions that happen inside a specific labor market area. Finally, a significant part of the difference in outcomes between formal and informal sectors appears to originate from spatial–economic dependence effects, indicating that labor market areas are more suitable for such analysis.
“…For the selection equation (the probability of working), the following variables were considered as potential control covariates: (1) education, (2) age, (3) gender, (4) a dummy variable equal to one for formal businesses, (5) a dummy variable equal to one if the person is indigenous, (6) the number of family members and (7) a dummy variable equal to one if the person is a household head. These variables were selected based on data availability and also following previous studies such as Baltagi et al (2017), who estimated the wage curve for Brazil and considered as control covariates the age of the individual, gender, race, education, the individual's years of tenure at a firm and formality of employment, among other variables available for Brazil. In Bolivia, the level of education and experience have a direct effect on the salary and on the probability of working; also, it is expected that differences in salary may exist for different age categories and between males and females.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Based on the reviewer's suggestion, we updated the estimation with data from the more recent survey and, thus, this section presents results based on data from the 2017 household survey of Bolivia. In the results for 2006, the estimate of the wage curve elasticity for Bolivia was equal to 7%.3 A similar variable was included byBaltagi et al (2017) as a control covariate, household type, where the response categories were couples without children, couples with children, single mother with children, and…”
The sensitivity of the wage curve to sample-selection and model uncertainty was evaluated with Bayesian methods. More than 8000 Heckit wage curves were estimated using data from the 2017 household survey of Bolivia. After averaging the estimates with the posterior probability of each model being true, the wage curve elasticity in Bolivia is close to -0.01. This result suggests that in this country the wage curve is inelastic and does not follow the international statistical regularity of wage curves.
“…But the wage variable is net of taxes and the estimates control for firm size. South Africa, 2000Africa, -2004 Close to zero in the short run and approximately -0.1 in the long run Baltagi et al (2017) Brazil, 2002 Aggregate = -0.107…”
Section: Parameter/variable Value In Base Casementioning
We introduce a new suite of macroeconomic models that extend and complement the Debt, Investment, and Growth (DIG) model widely used at the IMF since 2012. The new DIG-Labor models feature segmented labor markets, efficiency wages and open unemployment, and an informal non-agricultural sector. These features allow for a deeper examination of macroeconomic and fiscal policy programs and their impact on labor market outcomes, inequality, and poverty. The paper illustrates the model's properties by analyzing the growth, debt, and distributional consequences of big-push public investment programs with different mixes of investment in human capital and infrastructure. We show that investment in human capital is much more effective than investment in infrastructure in promoting long-run economic development when investments earn their average estimated returns. The decision about how much to invest in human capital versus infrastructure involves, however, an acute intertemporal trade-off. Because investment in education affects labor productivity with a long lag, it takes 15+ years before net national income, the private capital stock, real wages for the poor, and formal sector employment surpass their counterparts in a program that invests mainly in infrastructure. The ranking of alternative investment programs depends on the policymakers' social discount rate and on the weight of distributional objectives in the social welfare function.
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