The “Borderlandization” of the Horn of Africa in Relation to the Gulf Region, and the Effects on Somalia

The impact of the Middle East and Gulf states' involvement on the Horn of Africa's peace and security: Applying regional security complex theory

“…Although the relationship between the HoA and the Middle East has a long history, the current increasing involvement of the Middle East states in Horn is intense and profound (Marsai & Szalai, 2021). Particularly since the 2011 Arab Spring, the Middle East states' projects to protect and aspire to regional leadership around the Red Sea region have shaped regional security in the HoA (Verhoeven, 2018).…”

“…The UAE's collaboration with Eritrea over the naval base in the port of Assab is the most significant part of its external security involvement in the region (Mosley et al, 2021). Aiming to cut Eritrea's ties with Iran, the UAE began to provide financial assistance to the Eritrean government, which resulted in obtaining control of the Assab port and establishing a military base there (Marsai & Szalai, 2021). According to Vertin (2019), "Assab now hosts a significant number of Emirati naval, air, and ground assets-including warships, unmanned aerial vehicles, fighter jets, helicopters, and armored ground units" (p. 3).…”

“…In 2019, Ethiopia's former Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew told Al-Ain News, "[t]here are several countries that supported reforms in Ethiopia, but the UAE played a leading role in this regard" (Hassen, 2020). The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, also mediated and sponsored the peace treaty signed in 2018 between Ethiopia and Eritrea (Marsai & Szalai, 2021).…”

“…For example, the diplomatic break of Eritrea and Sudan with Iran to side with Saudi Arabia and the UAE indicates that the Middle East rivalry has harmed the Horn states' international relations (Informant 02 interview, March 6, 2023). Another consequence of such competition is that Eritrea severed all diplomatic ties with Qatar, while Djibouti downgraded its relations with Iran (Marsai & Szalai, 2021).…”

“…Beyond the proxy wars, the increasing presence of Middle Eastern states undermines the domestic and regional stability of the Horn (Marsai & Szalai, 2021). To Donelli and Dentice (2020), the competition and rivalry among the Gulf States could increase the risks of conflict escalation in the region.…”